556
FNUS73 KGRR 141847
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Wolf Lake...MI DNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
247 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but
as of 245 PM most of those were developing south of the burn site
closer to the Michigan/Indiana border. Not much further lowering
of RHs near 70 percent expected and winds will continue out of the
northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    a shower or thunderstorm late in the day.
Temperature.........66 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 13 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 10 to 13
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 15 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....390 /good/ at ignition. Max...420 /good/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EDT)      4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM
Sky (%).........55     65     92     89     88     85
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............69     66     65     60     58     55
RH..............70     70     65     69     69     72
20 ft wind......NE 13  NE 12  NE 12  NE 10  NE 10  NE 10
20 ft wind gust.18     17     20     20     21     21
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   2300   900    700    700    700
Mixing wind.....NE 15  NE 18  NE 16  E 17   E 16   E 17
Haines index....3      3      2      2      2      2
Smoke disprsl...390    420    140    120    100    120

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 15 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....140 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    80 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 21
                    mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....170 (fair) early in the morning increasing to
                    600 (excellent) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Meade
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414172.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov