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000
FXUS64 KHGX 130751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
251 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

With PW values remaining around or below the 25th percentile
(~0.75") early this morning, we`ll start off Saturday on a chilly
note with out-the-door temperatures this morning mainly ranging from
the mid to upper 50s. By this afternoon, ridging aloft will be in
place which causes 500mb heights to increase to 586-590 dam. Some
embedded shortwaves are leading to an increase in mid/upper level
clouds early this morning, so have your phones/cameras ready to take
some sunrise pictures! With surface low pressure beginning to
develop in the Northern Plains, a fairly robust LLJ (30-40 knots)
will develop over Central TX early this morning. This LLJ will slide
eastward and end up over Southeast TX this afternoon. As a result,
we can expect gusty southerly winds today with sustained winds
around 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph at times. Cloud cover will be
on a gradual decrease as this morning`s shortwave pushes out to the
east, but we`re still expecting temperatures to top out in the low
80s this afternoon. Ridging aloft breaks down a bit going into
Saturday night allowing for moisture advection to increase PW values
to 0.9"-1.2" by late Saturday night and 1.1"-1.4" by Sunday. As a
result, we can expect Saturday night`s temperatures to be about 5-
8°F warmer than the previous night with lows mainly in the low 60s.

Ridging aloft builds back in on Sunday which will suppress rain
chances. Recall to the previous paragraph that PW values will be
around 1.1"-1.4", which is right around the 75th percentile
(~1.32"). A VERY robust subsidence inversion from 950mb-850mb will
keep anything from developing rainfall wise, so say thanks to the
ridge aloft for keeping the weekend dry! It`ll still be fairly warm
and humid though with 850mb temperatures approaching the 90th
percentile, so expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s paired
with dew points in the mid 60s. Breezy southerly winds will help
regulate temperatures a bit along with lingering cloud cover.
Speaking of clouds, Sunday is National Look Up at the Sky
Day...which if you ask me should`ve been celebrated on Monday. Feel
free to celebrate by looking up at the clouds during the daytime and
seeing which one looks like a puppy or a dragon. You can also
celebrate by looking up at the stars during the nighttime hours. The
stars at night are big and bright *clap clap clap clap*...if you are
able to catch some glimpses of them through the increasing low-level
cloud cover. Insulation from these clouds mean that temperatures on
Sunday night will be a bit warmer than Saturday night`s as we bottom
out in the mid to upper 60s.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An onshore flow will persist across the area to start out the week as
low pressure to the lee of the Rockies deepens and high pressure ridges
into the area from the east. Monday through Wednesday, expect a majority
of the area to have highs in the 80s (some spots could push 90 degrees
on Wednesday) and lows in an upper 60s to lower 70s range. Skies will
be partly to mostly cloudy, and it will be humid. Enough weakness could
develop up north (areas north of I-10) late Monday night through Tuesday
to bring possible showers/thunderstorms as a disturbance moves across
the state. The next best chance of rains/storms starts Thursday afternoon
and continues on into Friday as a cold front moves through the area
as surface high pressure builds into the state from the northwest. This
front will help to cool the area down: mid to upper 80s highs on Thursday
will "cool down" into an upper 70s to lower 80s range on Friday. With
east to northeast winds in place on Friday night, look for lows in an
upper 50s to lower 60s range.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Light S-SE
winds will continue tonight, increasing to 12-18 KTS with gusts
of around 24-28 KTS Sat afternoon. Winds will slowly relax Sat
evening. There is a chance for the development of MVFR clouds Sat
night into early Sun morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds/seas on the low side to start the day will increase/rise as the
day progresses under a gradually tightening pressure gradient. Will
hoist caution flags starting this afternoon, and for now will carry
them through Sunday morning. We will probably need to extend these
flags throughout the day on Sunday. The upcoming week start out with
an even tighter pressure gradient resulting in an advisory level stronger
onshore flow and rising seas. Caution/advisory levels should persist
into Tuesday night before a relaxing gradient helps to lower the winds
and seas. While Wednesday currently looks like lighter southeast winds,
the seas might remain high enough for continuing cautions/advisories.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Due to the rainfall from earlier this week and its subsequent
runoff, a couple of River Flood Warnings remain in effect as of
early Saturday morning. The Navasota River at Normangee (NGET2) is
currently in minor flood stage and is forecast to remain there
throughout the weekend. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) rose
into minor flood stage on early Saturday morning and is forecast to
remain in minor flood stage into Sunday afternoon. Menard Creek at
Rye (RYET2) fell out of minor flood stage early Saturday morning, so
that Flood Warning will be cancelled before the morning update. The
Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) continues to rise, but is not
forecast to reach minor flood stage till early next week...and even
then it`ll be borderline. We`ll continue to monitor observation and
forecast trends. There are also multiple other gauges in action
stage along the San Jacinto, Brazos, and San Bernard Rivers.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  62  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83  64  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  69  77  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM CDT this afternoon
     through Sunday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$