044
FXUS63 KICT 272250
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
550 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely through tonight, some of which will be
  severe. All severe hazards are possible.

- Slight risk of a few severe storms eastern KS Sunday PM.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon
  through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorm mode has ended up being rather messy so far given
meridional component to mid-upper flow, multiple storms on the
scope, and multiple storm mergers. This should tend to limit how
many storms are capable of "higher-end" severe weather. However,
strong low and deep layer shear coupled with moderate to strong
instability will continue to favor a severe weather threat,
especially over southeast Kansas were the airmass has been
relatively undisturbed (outside of dense anvil debris). In this
area, favorable low-level shear, low-level instability, and low
cloud bases will support tornadoes with any embedded supercell or
QLCS structures. Damaging winds are also possible. The large hail
threat (anything greater than golfballs or so) will likely be
confined to cells that remain more discrete.

Another area of concern is north-central Kansas, where a slowly
northward retreating boundary is situated. Any cells that can become
rooted along this boundary will ingest rich low-level shear
along/just north of the boundary, and be capable of all severe
hazards (including tornadoes).

Additional storms may develop this afternoon-evening up and down the
dryline across western portions of KS-OK, with this activity then
tracking rapidly northeast. There`s some concern that current
widespread storm coverage and associated dense anvil cirrus east of
the dryline will limit instability and associated storm potential
along the dryline. However, if storms are able to form, CAPE/shear
combination will support all severe hazards with this activity,
especially if storms can remain more discrete.

A third round of storms may develop by later this evening over
western and central portions of KS-OK, ahead of approaching upper
forcing and mid-level cooling. The primary threat with this activity
would likely be 60+ mph winds (if storms are able to become severe)
given the stronger forcing and increasingly unfavorable hodographs.

Another threat we don`t want to forget this afternoon through
tonight is heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially from
roughly the KS Turnpike corridor on southeast, as numerous
thunderstorms continue to train northeast. Pockets of 1-3+ inches
are likely, and may fall in a short period. Consequently, areas of
street and low-land flooding are likely, along with modest to sharp
rises in area streams and rivers, again mainly along and southeast
of the KS Turnpike.

For Sunday, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will remain
possible over eastern KS, generally along and east of the Flint
Hills corridor, as the dryline continues to advance east. If a storm
or two is able to form (they may struggle due to decreasing
forcing), hail and wind would be the primary threats.

Taking a look ahead...an off-and-on active weather pattern
thunderstorm-wise looks to take shape once again Tuesday
afternoon/evening through Thursday night. Stay tuned, as we continue
to refine forecast details the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

TSRA is expected to continue in the CNU vicinity through 03Z with -
RA expected afterwards to 12Z.  Elsewhere, potential for convection
remains low enough to not warrant any specific mention in the TAF
but if it occurs, it looks most likely during the 07-12Z timeframe
near HUT and ICT. MVFR to potentially IFR cigs are possible towards
daybreak at RSL, SLN, and GBD with highest confidence at SLN. Brief
lowered vsbys are also possible but confidence is not as high.
Southerly winds will gradually become northerly to westerly with
gusts to 25kts returning tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ052-053-068>072-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...White