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000
FXUS63 KICT 171937
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional severe risk this evening with continued convective
  chances into Thursday morning, mainly along/east of I-135.

- Windy and turning much cooler during Thursday with stretch of
  cooler (below climo) weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Main short term concern/challenge is convective chances/trends
this evening into Thursday morning. Low level moisture advection
on a return southerly flow through the evening across south
central Kansas and the Flint Hills looks to result in plume of
moderate instability as the developmental warm front noses
northward across the area. A blend of the NAM/RAP suggests
elevated cape values at or above 1500 j/kg in the presence of
moderate/strong cloud bearing shear. In the absence of stronger
forcing aloft, it may take a ramp-up of the nocturnal low level
jet to initiate convection along/north of the front by late
evening. So chances are somewhat conditional in the evening. If
storms develop, large hail will be the main concern with a
remote tornado risk if storms can become somewhat quasi-surface
based given impressive 0-1 km SRH. Better chances/coverage of
strong to severe convection should shift primarily into
northeast Kansas after midnight as a warmer EML advects across
much of the area. A strong cold front will plunge southward
across the area late tonight through Thursday morning, as a more
significant upper trof progresses eastward across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Stronger forcing/lift from the front
should allow for an uptick in showers/storms east of the
turnpike corridor in the early morning with sufficient
shear/instability combo for at least a marginal severe risk.
Otherwise, much colder air on brisk north winds on Thursday with
a period of post-frontal light rain/drizzle followed by
clearing in the afternoon.

Much cooler for Friday with weak migratory disturbances aloft
moving thru the modest westerly flow aloft. This may promote
some sprinkles from a mid-level cloud deck, though a drier
sub-cloud airmass should preclude measurable precip.

A rather coolish weather pattern will prevail through the
weekend periodic disturbances continuing to ripple through the
mean west-northwest flow aloft. Any precip chances looks spotty
and generally light. Some moderation closer to or a tad above
climo by early next week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions expected during the afternoon and evening, as
surface winds switch around to the southeast with an increase
over central Kansas. Thunderstorm chances will be possible this
evening but expected to be more isolated so not enough coverage
to mention for TAF sites. A cold front will slide southward late
tonight with a developing line of showers and storms expected
over mainly eastern/southeast Kansas which could impact CNU site
Thursday morning. Could also see a period of low level wind
shear before the cold front sweeps southward late tonight along
with low clouds in MVFR category.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...CDJ