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000
FXUS62 KILM 102330
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give way to a cold frontal passage later
Thursday and Thursday night which will bring the potential for
a few severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. High
pressure will then gradually return into early next week
bringing dry weather and increasing temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only minor tweaks needed to previous forecast. Rain expected to
move in from the west/southwest around 3-5 AM. 0z aviation
discussion included below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet conditions hold through about midnight before shower chances
start to increase ahead of a frontal system. The ridge axis will
push offshore tonight ahead of a deep trough, the associated low off
to our west with a warm front approaching through the morning. The
warm front will push through Thursday afternoon from the south with
a line of showers and storms moving across the area. Our area is
currently in a Marginal risk (threat 1 of 5) for severe weather,
with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts and a possible
tornado. As the line moves through so will a 50-60 kt LLJ overhead,
with stronger storms possibly mixing these gusts down to the
surface. Outside of convection, gusts should be 30-35 kts. The
limiting factor will be instability (~300-500 J/kg) as we`ll be
cloudy all day but there will be plenty of shear (60-70 kt). The
main line of showers/storms should reach the SE NC coast by the end
of the period with lower shower chances behind it for any trailing
showers. Rainfall totals look between 1-2" at this time. Lows in the
low to mid 60s with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Isolated severe storms possible Thursday evening
*High surf along south-facing beaches Thursday night into early
 Friday morning

Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: A cold front will sweep through SE NC and NE SC Thursday
evening bringing high rain chances and a low risk for isolated
severe storms. As usual, there is plenty of deep layer shear
(50+ kt) but instability should be minimal (SBCAPE ~1000 J/kg or
less). Damaging winds look to be the main hazard but an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. Drier and cooler high
pressure will then build in through Friday night. However, can`t
completely rule out a few light showers/sprinkles Friday
afternoon/evening, especially in NC, as a strong upper shortwave
trough moves through. Breezy conditions will persist Friday
with some gusts over 30 mph likely in the afternoon. Temps will
be above normal Thursday night, back closer to normal
Friday/Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights:
*Warming trend into early next week
*Possible elevated fire danger this weekend depending on fuel
 conditions

Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: Weak troughing/zonal flow aloft will persist this weekend
with a bit more ridging thereafter which will help keep it dry.
Temps will be on a warming trend to well above normal levels with at
least lower 80s inland Sunday and mid 80s likely inland
Monday/Tuesday. We trended the dewpoints lower into early next week
and with breezy conditions also expected an elevated fire danger
could develop assuming fuel conditions become dry enough.

We trended the dewpoints lower into early next week and with breezy
conditions also expected an elevated fire danger could develop
assuming fuel conditions become dry enough.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low ceilings, flight restrictions, and rain are expected to
move in from the west around 8z, with widespread MVFR ceilings
by morning. Moist airmass will maintain predominantly low clouds
and light to moderate rainfall through Thursday afternoon. There
will likely be brief improvements to VFR during the period, but
impossible to pinpoint any intermittent improvements at this
time. IFR ceilings will be possible, especially inland, during
the day Thursday. Low visibilities expected within moderate to
heavy rain showers, with slight chance of thunder during
afternoon and evening hours. May start seeing VFR conditions
develop west to east during the last couple hours of TAF period.

Southerly winds will dominate the area through TAF period, with
increasing wind speeds and gusts overnight into Thursday. Wind
gusts 30-35 kts forecasted beginning 15z. Have included LLWS at
coastal terminals for the last 4-6 hours of TAF period (Thursday
afternoon/evening) as south winds at 2000 ft increase to 50-60
kt.

Extended Outlook...Conditions will be improving Thursday night,
with VFR forecasted for daytime Friday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...S`ly winds and seas will increase tonight ahead
of a frontal system, SCA conditions becoming established by Thursday
morning. A line of strong showers and storms will move over the
waters during the afternoon and evening, with gale force gusts and
waterspouts possible.

Thursday night through Monday...Poor marine conditions expected
into Friday night with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Could
see some gale force (>=34 kt) gusts through the first half of
Thursday night, especially associated with showers/storms. Thus,
a Gale Watch is also in effect. More tranquil conditions are
then expected Saturday/Saturday night as high pressure builds in
with some worsening of the conditions again early next week as
an inland trough develops leading to an increasing pressure
gradient, although a Small Craft Advisory is not anticipated.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is likely at times into Thursday night due to
strengthening onshore winds ahead of a cold front, especially during
the evening high tides along the lower Cape Fear River but possibly
also along the SE NC and NE SC beaches. Unusually low tide levels
are likely late Thursday night/early Friday morning due to strong
offshore winds behind a cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     NCZ110.
SC...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     SCZ054.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...