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000
FXUS63 KIND 121045
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More rain today, especially this morning. Amounts less than a
  quarter of an inch are expected.
- Gusty winds again today with gusts near 40 mph possible.
- Minor flooding continue along main stem rivers continues with isolated
  moderate flooding in smaller creeks
- Active weather pattern continues into next week with numerous
  chances for rain and storms, severe weather threat increase
  Tuesday into Wednesday
- Above normal temperatures Sunday into most of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The wet pattern will continue this morning across central Indiana,
before dry weather returns to all areas overnight tonight.

This morning...

Additional upper energy rotating around an upper low will bring more
rain to much of central Indiana this morning, as plentiful moisture
remains across the area. Will go likely category or higher PoPs most
areas early to mid morning, but PoPs will diminish from northwest to
southeast from mid to late morning.

Rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch.

This Afternoon...

Some drier air will try and work into the area from the west,
allowing some decrease in clouds by late afternoon, especially
across the southwest forecast area.

Additional upper energy will rotate around the upper low, but by
this time only the northeast/far eastern areas will be impacted as
the main system moves east. Will keep some chance PoPs in these
areas. Some weak instability will have developed thanks to surface
heating and colder air aloft, so an isolated thunderstorm is
possible.

A decent pressure gradient plus some mixing with the steeper lapse
rates will bring down some of the winds aloft. Ensembles are showing
that odds favor winds remaining below Advisory criteria (45 mph),
but gusts up to 40 mph remain possible.

Temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 50s central and
east. In the west, if clouds break as expected, highs will reach the
lower 60s.

Tonight...

A few showers may linger very early in the period in the far
northeast, then forcing will exit the area. Surface high pressure
will nudge its way into the area late tonight, bringing drier air.
This will allow clouds to decrease during the night.

Clearing skies and diminishing winds will lead to low temperatures
in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Saturday...Hit the pause button for weather systems impacting the
Ohio Valley as the departing trough axis finally pivots east of the
region Sat morning. This will allow a modest height rise in the
500mb layer, with broad anti-cyclonic flow found within the boundary
layer and centered south of the region along the GOMEX. Generally
will see a quasi-zonal flow Sat, which will help with the
progressive flow. Currently guidance is indicating most of Sat will
end up full-sunshine due to the diffluent/sinking motion to the
airmass overhead; however, the concern is that we could see a solid
diurnal cumulus field develop late morning and persist into the
afternoon hours. One scenario that could offer a better solution is
that air will be sinking and could suppress the diurnal clouds from
being much more than Few/Sct coverage.

The southwest flow should be increasing by mid-morning Sat, allowing
warmer air to begin advecting north. Guidance continues to lean on a
modest thermal ridge arriving and helping to push temps into the
upper 60s to perhaps low 70s. But the caveat to how warm the surface
becomes will be the saturated surface conditions, which will likely
require more energy from the sun to warrant a positive response and
see a strong diurnal curve. Mixed layer should also be on the
increase, coupled with isallobaric gradient within the mixed layer
helping to keep breezy conditions in place Sat as well.

Sunday...While the longwave pattern within the mid-levels appears to
be leaning towards a slightly amplified height field upstream,
surface ridging will be drifting east towards the Southeast CONUS.
This will allow the GOMEX to be wide-open with moisture streaming
north. Thermal ridge will continue to be overhead, and combined with
minimal cloud cover should warrant a large diurnal curve with temps
easily into the upper 70s to perhaps 80 degrees.

Monday through Tuesday...Continued southerly flow to kick-off the
week with a quiet weather pattern; however, the middle of the week
will see a turn towards more convective activity to the Ohio Valley.
Upstream a shortwave will be exiting the four-corners region of the
CONUS, and quickly pushing into the Central Plains late Mon into
Tue. The antecedent low-level moist conditions coupled with strong
southerly flow early in the week and an approaching shortwave point
towards potential for convective activity arriving Tue. Temps will
continue to be unseasonably mild.

Wednesday through Thursday...A shortwave will be undergoing a
transition Wed as it phases into a stronger system over the Northern
Plains, with a slight negative tilt to the 500mb wave pattern.
Southerly flow is still progged to linger mid-week, supporting
continued unseasonable warmth and likely humidity given the moist
boundary layer. There may be a brief period or two of quiet weather,
towards the later half of next week the active pattern does return.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Impacts:

-MVFR cigs through 18Z, brief IFR cigs possible.
-Northwesterly wind gusts to 30kts through TAF period
-Rain diminishing before 16Z

Discussion:

An area of rain will move through the sites early in the period,
possibly bringing MVFR visibility and IFR ceilings. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings are expected for the first 6 hours or so of the period,
then ceilings will lift to VFR and eventually break up by evening.

West to northwest winds will gust to near 30kt during the day then
diminish this evening.

Isolated convection this afternoon should remain east of the TAF
sites.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Beach
AVIATION...50