182
FXUS63 KJKL 040536
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
136 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast
  through the next 7 days.

- Cooler than in recent days, but temperatures are forecast to be
  above normal through the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Scattered showers are found through eastern Kentucky along with a
potential for a stray thunderstorm. Have updated the forecast
mainly to fine tune the PoPs and thunder chances through the rest
of the night per radar and CAMs trends. Did also include the
latest obs and tendencies for the T/Td grids. These adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a
freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure having moved a little closer
to the area from the west and this has pushed the protective area
of high pressure out of Kentucky. Accordingly, return flow
moisture has helped fuel showers across the region today along
with a few thunderstorms. Currently, the best batch of convection
is west of the I-75 corridor. This is expected to drift east with
time - but weaken. The extra clouds around today along with the
showers have kept temperatures on the cooler side compared to
yesterday. The latest obs have temperatures generally in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds,
dewpoints have moistened into the low to mid 60s for most spots.
Have updated the forecast mainly to fine tune the PoPs and thunder
chances through the night per radar and CAMs trends. Did also add
in the latest obs and tendencies for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024

An active pattern remains across the Bluegrass State through the
short term. Large upper low/trough configuration remains over the
far northern US and south-central Canada with an active jet stream
from the Central Plains to Upper Great Lakes region. Meanwhile,
upper ridging remains persistent along the East Coast, and will
begin to move offshore Saturday night as the aforementioned upper
low begins to move northeast toward eastern Canada at that time.
This leaves eastern Kentucky under the influence of a moist and
active regime with periodic shortwave disturbances moving across the
region through Saturday evening.

Currently a disturbance is beginning to exit to the east this
afternoon, but will be followed by another tonight into Saturday
morning that will bring another round of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. Models suggest low-level instability is somewhat
lacking but there is sufficient elevated instability to warrant a
few claps of thunder from time to time, especially west of I-75. Fog
formation overnight will be dependent on any lulls in precipitation
as well as any potential partial clearing. Lows tonight will range
from the mid-50s in the cooler sheltered valleys to lower 60s
elsewhere.

Another disturbance appears to be well-timed with any daytime
heating to help produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms
Saturday. Given high PoPs and cloud cover through the day
temperatures will struggle to reach the current forecast highs of
upper 70s.

PoPs gradually lower through Saturday evening through the overnight
as a trailing shortwave crosses the area with shortwave ridging
building in from the southwest after midnight. Sky cover will likely
trend downward but this would likely then promote fairly widespread
fog formation late Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially in
the river valleys. Expect forecast lows Saturday night similar to
tonight`s forecast, with mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 540 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024

The models generally agree on a fairly stagnant long wave pattern
across the CONUS through the majority of next week. A seasonably
strong 500 mb low pressure system will start out over the West
Coast early Sunday morning, before swinging east, residing over
the northern Rockies/northern High Plains by early Tuesday. This
feature will then elongate and gradually dampen with time as it
moves over the Upper Midwest, with a broad positively tilted
trough aligning from the Great Lakes back through the Desert
Southwest. This will keep west to west southwest flow across the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys aloft, with several progressive short
wave troughs to move through the region at times. At the surface,
a quasi-stationary front will be aligned just north of the area
through early next week, before a cold front approaches by the end
of the next work week.

This will all result in unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky
through the long term forecast, with daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Have generally stayed a bit below the blended
guidance on PoPs for the days where the overall forcing is weaker
and/or less certain, as it is known to overdo more diurnally
influenced convection. At this time, rain chances look to peak on
Monday (80-90%), and then again on Thursday (70-80%), with better
forcing at play. The rest of the period will feature chance PoPs
(30-60%). Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees above normal,
with lows mainly in the lower 60s, while highs range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s most days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT MAY 4 2024

Scattered showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, will
continue across the area through the night. The challenge will be
determining whether or not a particular TAF site sees any showers
or storms, so VCTS or VCSH were used to account for any such
activity. We should see an uptick in showers and storms after the
sun comes up, as heating begins to occur and instability
increases. This will be especially true during the early afternoon
through early evening hours on Saturday. In fact, widespread
showers and at least scattered storms are expected from around 17Z
today through around 2Z Saturday night. MVFR to IFR CIGs will be
possible with any storm or intense shower, along with brief
periods of MVFR VSBYs. Winds should be out of the south or
southwest at less than 10kts during the day, but could be stronger
and gusty with any storms that affect at TAF site.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR