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000
FXUS63 KJKL 201734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
134 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair weather lasts through early in the new workweek.

- Frost will be possible in some sheltered valley locations Sunday
  morning, but is expected to be most widespread Sunday
  night/Monday morning and again Monday night/Tuesday morning,
  especially through the valleys.

- Another cold front is forecast to pass late Tuesday through
  Wednesday morning, bringing a round of light rain along with a
  small thunderstorm chance.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

Morning observations have been blended into the hourly forecast,
without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

One more update has been sent out to raise PoPs for the next
couple of hours along the Tennessee border as a fast-moving
disturbance grazes the area with shower activity.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

Early morning update is out, with the main change lowering the
hourly dew points in the grids quicker than before. Otherwise,
there are no changes to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

Lower-level cloud cover and some patchy fog diminishes through
this morning generally from northwest to southeast as a large
expansive surface high over the central US expands across the Ohio
River Valley, with fair conditions prevailing through Sunday. A
slight chance of rain is introduced clipping the far southern
portion of the CWA, mainly around the Middlesboro area, for a few
hours Sunday morning as a system slides by to the south, but even
here measurable rain chances are less than 20 percent.

The cooler and drier air mass and cloud cover from a passing
southern stream system will play a role in how low temperatures fall
tonight, and additionally whether the area sees any frost. COOP MOS
values continue to trend slightly warmer for lows tonight, likely
due to more extensive cloud cover, with most forecasts trending
toward the mid to upper 30s compared to lower to mid 30s. This will
likely favor frost formation tonight at least an on isolated to
widely scattered basis, but perhaps not on a widespread basis. Given
the low confidence, will allow day shift to assess the need for a
Frost Advisory for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

The period begins with a passing system that`s forecast to skirt the
CWA but models have been consistent with this system remaining south
of the area. To the west, surface high pressure will be nudging its
way eastward into the region bringing drier weather through the
middle of next week. However, persistent upper-level flow out the
northwest will keep CAA in place before flow begins to back to the
southwest. Surface high pressure, coupled with clear skies and CAA,
areas of near freezing temperatures and frost chances will increase
Monday morning and again Tuesday morning in the more sheltered
valleys.

Model continue to remain in agreement with a system moving across
southern Canada. While this occurs, a surface low and associated
cold front will cross across the northern CONUS. Ahead of the
approaching front, flow turns southwesterly and increasing
temperatures are forecast before the front crosses through the
Commonwealth late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of the front
but due a widespread lack of instability due to the timing of the
front, severe weather looks to be limited. High pressure builds back
into the region for late Wednesday with a slight chance of frost
Thursday morning in the more sheltered eastern valleys. Models remain
in agreement for the end of the period, with another system moving
out of the Central Plains with another cold front bringing shower
and thunderstorms chances for the end of the period.

Overall, frost chances will exist Monday morning and again Tuesday
morning before warming temperatures are expected ahead of a surface
cold front for Wednesday. Temperatures drop a little bit for
Thursday but begin to rebound Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2024

VFR conditions and sustained winds mostly less than 10 kt will
prevail through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL