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000
FXUS62 KKEY 111437
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1037 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1032 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Surface obs reflect the humid air along the island chain this
morning with temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
mid 70s as we wait for the arrival of a cold front that is
currently over the eastern Gulf. Guidance suggests the leading
edge of the front arrives some time after sunset, which is when we
are still expecting an uptick in chances for showers and
thunderstorms. No significant changes are being made to the
forecast package at this time for the island chain, however the
Small Craft Advisory is being expanded in coverage to include the
entirety of Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1032 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024
High pressure centered near Bermuda will maintain
moderate to fresh south to southeast breezes across the Florida
Keys this morning, with strong breezes in the southern and eastern
waters. Breezes will then slacken during the later half of the
afternoon and veer to the south ahead of a weak front that is
progged to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters by late
tonight. In the wake of the front, breezes will shift to the
northeast to east as another high pressure system moves across the
Southeast and into the western North Atlantic. Breezes will
slacken through Sunday night then gradually freshen beginning
Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon at EYW and MTH. A
frontal boundary will push through the forecast area this evening,
with isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm along it. Sub-VFR
conditions are possible within these storms, but exact location and
timing of these showers is uncertain. Will likely include mention of
VCSH in the afternoon TAF update. Crosswind issues will continue
through the early afternoon, with sustained southerly winds of near
15 knots and gusts of near 20 knots expected. A quick decline in
wind speeds is forecast thereafter.


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1984, the daily record rainfall of 1.70" was
recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  85  73  80  70 /  10  20  10   0
Marathon  84  74  80  70 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     GMZ042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....NB

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