Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Key West, FL
000
FXUS62 KKEY 101857
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
257 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights a potent mid to upper level low
spreading east through the Arklatex. Ahead of this system, a
mature squall line is nearing the Florida Panhandle. Mean-layer
ridging remains in control across the Caribbean, although the
latest water vapor images suggest some erosion of its northwestern
flank as lower heights spread southeast into the Gulf of Mexico.
GOES VIS/IR/TPW imagery highlight anticyclonic flow across the
Keys, Bahamas, and Cuba, with very little evidence of deep
tropical moisture upstream from the Keys. The confluent flow and
moisture convergence along the front in the Gulf places a broad
area of 2.0"+ TPW extending southwest from the mouth of the
Mississippi. Across the Keys this afternoon, mostly sunny skies
and breezy southeasterlies are accompanied by highs in the mid
80s. Dewpoints are back in the lower 70s for most communities.
.FORECAST...
The main stories for the next week will be the overnight Small
Craft Advisory, the cold front late Thursday night, another late
season cool/dry down, followed by another lengthy easterly blow.
We dropped out of Advisory thresholds earlier this morning, but
the strengthening gradient this evening should push the southeast
winds back up to near 20 knots. These strong breezes will linger
through sunrise, followed by slackening and veering as the cold
front approaches. Forecast soundings suggest the Cuban shadow on
Thursday will limit rain chances to near nil, followed by slight
rain/thunder chances Thursday night ahead of and along the front.
The suite of CAMs describe a remarkable disappearing act to the
skinny squall line as it progresses through the southeastern Gulf
Thursday evening. Nevertheless, sometimes the limiting factor is
low- level moisture return, that is often underdone by the BL CAM
schema. We will hold onto the mention of thunder. On the back side
of the front, dewpoints will fall into the lower 60s, and
potentially the upper 50s. Overnight lows should be limited to
near 70 based on the nearshore SSTs, although some communities may
touch the upper 60s. The forecast for Monday through Wednesday
will feature a large progressive anticyclone taking shape over the
western North Atlantic. This will set the stage for another
extended easterly blow with temperatures and humidity returning
to near seasonal levels.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Small Craft Advisory in effect for all coastal waters of the
Florida Keys due to southeast winds increasing to near 20 knots.
From synopsis, high pressure centered near Bermuda will maintain
fresh to strong southeast breezes across the Florida Keys tonight
and Thursday morning. Breezes will slacken Thursday and veer to
the south ahead of a weak front that is progged to push through
the Florida Keys coastal waters by late Thursday night. In the
wake of the front, breezes will shift to the northeast to east as
another high pressure system moves across the Southeast and into
the western North Atlantic.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
FR conditions continue at both island terminals through the TAF
period. Observations have reflected FEW clouds AOA approximately 3k
to 5k feet, but instances of clouds onsite have been far and few
between. Prevailing winds out of the southeast remain sustained
between 10 to 15 knots with gusts frequently between 20 and 25
knots. Direction turns southerly near the end of this TAF period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1899, the daily record cold high temperature of 65F
was recorded at Key West. This is also tied for the coldest high
temperature ever recorded in April for Key West. April temperature
records for Key West date back to 1872.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 76 84 74 80 / 10 10 20 10
Marathon 77 86 74 82 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP
Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest