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000
FXUS63 KLBF 170249
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
949 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AT H5 CLOSED CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST CONUS AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHERN SANDHILLS. IN THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 2...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED AND THE FORCING HAS
MOVED NORTH. THEREFORE...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
LIKELY AND WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
EASTWARD...AT LEAST UNTIL IT REACHES THE AREAS COOLED THIS EVENING
BY EARLIER CONVECTION. SOMEWHERE EAST OF MERRIMAN-OGALLALA AND
WEST OF AINSWORTH-BROKEN BOW...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DISSIPATE. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE STORMS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALSO...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A COMPACT MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.  LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP...AND LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES GREATER THAN 1000
J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 30KTS OR SO.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT SHIFT EAST WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE.  OTHERWISE HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A WARM DAY.  HIGHS APPROACHING 90
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
ANY STORM THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ONCE AGAIN BE ON
THE STRONG SIDE...IF NOT SEVERE...AS SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR IS
AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MODELS HAVING
MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER PATTERN. EC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN LONG TERM WITH GFS THE OUTLIER. RIDGE SHARPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING
NORTH JUST TO THE WEST OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AND TROUGH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA DRY LINE
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...STATIONARY BOUNDARY WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM SECTOR IS CAPPED FRIDAY EVENING
WITH WEAKER CAP NORTH NEAR BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE BEST DAY FOR SEVERE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH GOOD SETUP. BULK SHEAR NUMBERS LOOK GOOD TO GET SOME
SUPER CELLS. INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. 700MB
WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDE SPREAD ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SATURDAY COOLING TO THE 70S SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. MAY HAVE TO
TREND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE ENDING BY 07Z AT ONL. IN THE
MEANTIME...WIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
VRB22-28G32-40KT AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT...THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z FRIDAY
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS VTN-TIF-LBF AND EAST WILL BE
AFTER 00Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER