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000
FXUS64 KLIX 241733 AAC
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Overall, ongoing forecast looks to be okay, so no near term
changes to today or this afternoon. One minor changes was made
overnight and especially early Thursday morning. Decided to add in
some patchy fog respectively. Weaker low level flow and
increasing low level moisture will help aid in at least some
potential for fog. SREF is most bullish along and north of I10/12
and also west of I55 in Louisiana. (Frye)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

It has been a much warmer night across the region but still cool
compared to normal. By 8z most of the area had dropped into the
50s with lower to mid 60s right along the coasts. Moisture has
increased some but dewpoints are still in the upper 40s to near
60. This should help keep any fog potential this morning down to a
minimum and even if some fog does develop it will likely be very
shallow.

The forecast for the rest of the work week is rather quiet. The
only possible impact to mention is more of an aviation impact and
that would be fog or low clouds. The LL winds aren`t really strong
enough to make me overly concerned for the low clouds Thursday and
Friday and given the rather dry soil conditions any fog that may
develop would probably be ground fog and thus very shallow and not
much if any impact.

Mid lvl ridge begins to build in today and will dominate the
region through the weekend. LL temps will start to increase in
response with h925 temps likely around 17/18C and could be around
21C by Friday while h85 temps should approach 11/12C today and
around 14/15C by Friday. Mixing dry adiabatically to these lvls
only indicates highs in the 80s the rest of the week, 80-83 today
and 82-86 possibly topping out around 87/88 in isolated areas on
Friday. Just like yesterday the NBM is a little more bullish on
highs than the other MOS products and given the LL temps being
advertised am inclined once again to lean towards the MOS values.
That said there are a few small things that could lead to the
warmer NBM. First is the lack of wind at least the next 2 days.
This would keep us from mixing as much and allowing the BL to inch
up a degree or two more than anticipated. Second is the dry sfc
conditions; it has been about 2 weeks since anyone has seen a
really good wetting rain and the drier soil conditions could play
in favor of the warmer NBM but those two caveats have a greater
impact in the Summer and late Spring and it is still mid/late
April. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

There hasn`t been any major shifts in the thinking for the
extended portion of the forecast. Medium range models in rather
good agreement and both the consistency within the models and
continuity between the models is about as good as you can ask
for. What does this mean, well it should be a quiet yet warm
weekend and rain likely returning to the region late Monday into
Tuesday.

Ridge will dominate the region through the weekend. As the ridge
holds firm across the southeastern CONUS through the weekend it
will cause multiple disturbances to lift northeast across the
Plains and into the Upper MS Valley. This will keep any rain out
of the area and should lead to a rather warm weekend. There is a
good chance that most of the area will see highs in the mid to
even upper 80s. Saturday may have a good deal of cirrus in place
as the subtropical jet streams across the region Friday night and
through much of Saturday but by Sunday it looks to be in the Gulf
while the polar jet dips across the 4 corners and then races to
the northeast. That should help to lose what high clouds are over
us and more sun. There is also a very small chance that some
light, uhhh very light isolated to scattered showers could develop
Sunday. This appears to be associated with a tongue of higher LL
moisture streaming in from the SSE across the CWA. But as soon as
we lose the daytime heating any showers out there would quickly
cease.

Heading into next week the ridge will finally break down. After
holding off multiple disturbance over the weekend running into and
over the western periphery of the ridge it will finally given in
and along with the entire ridge slide east along the Atlantic
coast and into the Atlantic. This will allow a mild/weak L/W
trough to slide into and through the area late Monday and into
Tuesday. This will also allow a weak cold front to push into the
area but likely not all the way through and it will be these two
features that help to bring some rain back into the region. Still
not looking at much in the way of impacts yet as this doesn`t have
the sign of strong to severe weather. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions anticipated for all terminals this afternoon and
into tonight. Just prior to sunrise some patchy shallow fog will
be possible, especially for MCB where IFR or lower VIS may be
possible. This will quickly dissipate after sunrise leading to VFR
conditions once again from that point through the end of the
cycle. Winds will stay rather light and southerly. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Benign conditions will continue through the work week as high
pressure dominates the region. By this weekend winds will increase
in response to a tightening of the pressure gradient. This will
be cause by multiple surface low developing and moving northeast
across the Plains this weekend and into next week. This should
lead to some headlines being needed possibly as early as Friday
night and into next week. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  83  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  62  85  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  61  82  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  65  83  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  62  81  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  59  84  62  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB