166
FXUS63 KLMK 121032
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Beautiful Sunday. Plenty of sunshine, cool in the morning and
    warm in the afternoon.

*   Active pattern next week with almost daily chances of showers
    and storms Monday through Friday. Best chance for a dry day will
    be Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Severe weather is not
    expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Not a whole lot going on in the short term as surface high pressure
and dry NW flow aloft control our regional pattern. After chilly
morning lows in the upper 40s and low 50s, highs today should warm
to the 75 to 80 degree range under mostly sunny skies. Forecast
soundings show an uncapped environment, however without any trigger,
don`t think parcels will be able to reach LFC and be convectively
released. GFS is the only model hinting at a few blips of QPF, but
overall think it is overdone, so will keep a dry forecast.

Dry conditions continue into tonight, however we will note an
increase in upper sky cover, especially toward dawn. This will help
to keep overnight lows a bit milder, only dropping into the low and
mid 50s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Monday through Wednesday Night...

Zonal flow early Monday will push a low pressure system from the
Central Plains east towards the Lower Ohio Valley, but it`s won`t
arrive until Tuesday night. During its slow trek precipitation
chances will begin increasing across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Gulf of Mexico moisture will flow north into the Ohio
Valley on decent 10-15 mph southerly winds ahead of the system. This
will begin lifting precipitable water values to just over 1.25" by
Monday evening. Relatively weak instability and shear over the CWA
will result in rain showers. An isolated rumble of thunder is
possible but unlikely. Severe weather isn`t on the table. Overall
models are looking fairly dry Monday and Monday night, but by
Tuesday morning, widespread showers look more likely. Model
soundings look even more stable and deeply saturated as the low
pressure system eases over the Lower Ohio Valley. This is where the
Global models and NAM differ on timing. The Global models stall the
system over the region long enough to keep rain falling into
Wednesday night. The NAM is quicker and pushes the system over to
the east quicker. This would bring an end to precip by Wednesday
morning. Currently with this event, we have around 1-1.5" falling
across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Temperatures are
expected to remain fairly consistent day to day with highs in the
70s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...

Sometime Wednesday night we should dry out as upper ridging and
surface high pressure move back into the CWA. Skies will begin
clearing, but this will be short-lived because by Friday, another
low pressure system will begin moving in from the west on zonal
flow. The current data looks like a repeat of the system on Tuesday
as instability and shear looks limited. This system also looks like
a slow mover with shower chances remaining into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast cycle as high
pressure controls the region. Surface winds pick up between 5 and 10
mph out of the WSW or SW, before slackening and finding more of a S
component by late afternoon/early evening. Other than a few cu
possible around 6-7 K feet this afternoon, some upper sky cover may
move in toward the end of this forecast cycle.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS