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000
FXUS64 KLZK 230508 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1208 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Surface high pressure will slide eastward tonight, allowing for a
brief warmup as a southerly flow returns. The warmup will be brief,
as another slow-moving cold front will be dropping down into
Arkansas from the Plains.

The front will start to move into northern Arkansas late tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night, and will gradually sing southward
toward the AR/LA border by the end of the period.

With a return flow in place, rain chances will be back in the
forecast as the front begins to push into the state tomorrow
afternoon, with rain chances persisting through the remainder of the
term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Model guidance continues to agree that a very unsettled pattern is
expected during the period. While guidance is in generally good
agreement early in the period, the models do diverge with time. As
such, a blend of model solutions seems prudent this afternoon.

Period initiates with a frontal boundary stretched out across the
northern part of the state. Front will slowly move through the state
Wednesday, stall out over the south Wednesday night.

Boundary will lift slowly back to the north as a warm front on
Thursday as an upper low initially in the desert southwest lifts out
and opens up into a trough and drags the front to the north. Front
will act as a focal point for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

As the warm front moves north, a noticeable increase in both dew
points and temperatures will occur. Aforementioned upper trough will
close off once again as it moves into the central plains late in the
work week with a rather stout southwest flow developing. A series of
weak shortwaves will kick out of the trough and bring several rounds
of precipitation to the state as they do.

Associated surface reflection in the central plains early Friday
will race off to the northeast increasing the chances of strong
storms as the atmosphere will become more supportive of severe
weather. Best chances of stronger storms will be over the northwest
half of the state along with the highest rainfall amounts. Rain
chances will continue through the remainder of the extended period
as another cold front approaches. Several inches of rain can not be
ruled over the northern half of the state through the end of the
period. Temperatures will average a few degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period. S/SW winds will
relax overnight before returning to 10 to 20 knots on Tues. Mid/high
clouds are expected to build into the state from the N on Tues
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  56  73  54 /  10  30  20  30
Camden AR         77  58  76  59 /   0  10  20  10
Harrison AR       76  51  69  53 /  30  20  20  60
Hot Springs AR    77  59  74  58 /   0  20  30  30
Little Rock   AR  78  61  74  59 /   0  20  30  30
Monticello AR     76  61  75  60 /   0  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      77  58  74  58 /   0  20  40  30
Mountain Home AR  77  51  71  52 /  30  30  10  40
Newport AR        76  58  74  56 /  10  20  20  30
Pine Bluff AR     76  60  74  59 /   0  10  30  20
Russellville AR   78  58  72  56 /  10  20  30  40
Searcy AR         76  58  72  55 /   0  20  20  30
Stuttgart AR      76  61  74  59 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...67