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000
FXUS64 KMEG 120438
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1138 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 50s and 60s under
mostly clear skies. While winds have slackened across the region,
breezy conditions may persist through tomorrow afternoon. A warm
and dry weekend is expected, with rain chances returning to the
Mid-South by Tuesday. Ensemble disagreement continues to suggest
low confidence in severe potential affecting the Mid-South on
Tuesday; however, trends regarding this situation will be closely
monitored. The current forecast is on track with no changes
planned or needed.

JPR

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A welcomed pattern change will occur on Friday with dry and warm
conditions persisting through the weekend. Rain chances return on
Tuesday as the next storm system approaches the Mid-South. Wet
conditions will likely persist through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Persistent upper level ridging will overspread the Mid-South on
Friday, resulting in dry conditions through the weekend. In
addition, a warming trend will be evident as temperatures increase
to around 80 degrees by Sunday afternoon.

On Monday, guidance continues to depict a strong upper level low
trekking across the Central Plains. Local impacts will likely not
be felt until Tuesday, when the aforementioned low pulls towards
the Great Lakes Region. Several days of return flow will allow for
a moist airmass to be in place by Tuesday afternoon. At this
time, rain chances look to increase with thunderstorm development
possible. The Storm Prediction Center has included a portion of
the Mid-South in a Slight Risk for severe storm development on
Tuesday. However, most recent guidance depicts large discrepancies
in location of the instability axis on Tuesday. For example, the
GEFS places about a 30% chance of >1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place
across the Mid-South through sunset Tuesday. On the contrary,
ECMWF ensemble has a 0% probability of >500 J/kg at this time.
Overall, the probability for severe weather development appears
relatively low (30%) on Tuesday due to favorable shear and
instability not overlapping.

Rain chances will persist through Thursday as a reinforcing front
slowly moves across the Mid-South

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR and west/northwest winds will prevail through the period.
Surface pressure gradient will remain moderately tight through
00Z/13, with gusts most likely to occur with daytime heating and
mixing. The center of a surface pressure ridge will drop to LA by
this evening, with winds becoming light across the Midsouth.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB