196
FXUS62 KMFL 010538
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
138 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

No major changes to the forecast as the previous philosophy is
working well. Fog is still in the forecast for tonight with an
inland focus. Several areas have seen heavy rainfall today, which
could provide some surface-based moisture for fog formation. This
will have to be monitored in case additional updates are needed
overnight to account for this in more areas of South Florida.
Otherwise, the convection is going as anticipated with a weakening
trend expected over the coming hours as the sea breezes retreat
back to the coast. Some activity could linger over the coastal
waters overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

An unsettled couple of days are expected across South FL. A
shortwave trough is expected to cross the area today and then sit
just east of the area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a surface trough that
was sitting across the east coast metro this morning will slowly
drift to the west throughout the course of today. SCT showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into evening, with the
highest PoPs over interior South FL, however chances will remain
along the coasts as well. Despite the trough axis moving east of the
area overnight into tomorrow morning, residual moisture will linger
across the area resulting in more SCT showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday. Main threat over the next couple days will be for locally
heavy rain. While widespread flooding is not expected, PWAT values
of 1.8-1.9 inches will result in high rainfall rates, and a quick 1-
2 inches per hour is possible in spots which could lead to some
isolated urban flooding. Winds tonight over the interior are
expected to be nearly calm, so some patchy fog is possible in the
typical locations across the Everglades, around the lake, and
interior SW FL.

High temps this afternoon will range from the lower 80s across the
east coast metro to upper 80s across SW FL. A mild evening is
expected with overnight lows ranging from the middle 60s around the
lake to lower 70s close to the coasts. Temps will nudge higher a
couple degrees on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid
80s across the east coast metro, to around 90 over interior SW FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

As we move into the latter half of the week, the trough will make
it`s exit eastward into the Atlantic as a mid-level ridge gradually
moves into the Southeast. With easterly flow and remnant
moisture, there is a chance for isolated to scattered light
showers on Thursday. However, through the majority of the long
term, a weak body of surface high pressure will have the main
influence on the conditions over the Peninsula, thus keeping it
drier and warm. The high will be situated over the western
Atlantic which will lead to consistent easterly flow near the
surface. With the E/SE flow, there will be a chance (15-30%) for
isolated to scattered showers daily, due to modest moisture
advection and pooling. Showers and isolated storms could be
enhanced further by daily gulf and sea breezes. However, in the
current ensemble outlook, widespread heavy rainfall, or
significant instability, does not appear to be a threat for the
long term. Caution will need to be taken with any slow-moving rain
showers due to sensitivity to flash flooding, especially when the
grounds are saturated.

Temperatures will be near to just above-normal through the
extended period. The highs will be rise into the upper 80s to low
90s across the SW and interior, while remaining in the low to mid
80s along the Atlantic Coast. The overnight lows will be in the
60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Isolated to scattered shower activity will be possible near the
east coast terminals overnight and into the morning hours. Some
thunderstorms may develop early this afternoon near the east coast
terminals before shifting towards the interior later in the
afternoon. Light winds through the overnight hours will increase
out of ESE late Wednesday morning. At KAPF, winds increase early
this afternoon out of the SW as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SCT showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the area
waters the next couple of days which could lead to locally hazardous
marine conditions. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions
are expected with E/SE winds 10-15 kts over the Atlantic waters and
around 10 kts in the Gulf. A light westerly wind is expected over
the Gulf waters during the afternoon on Wednesday. Seas generally 2-
4 ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains across the Atlantic beaches
through this evening due to persistent easterly flow. The high risk
will remain across the Palm Beaches through Wednesday due to a
lingering swell, while conditions slightly improve at Broward and
Miami-Dade beaches as the SE flow weakens, however an elevated
threat will remain through much of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  73  86  73 /  40  20  20  10
West Kendall     85  71  86  70 /  50  20  20  10
Opa-Locka        85  73  86  73 /  40  20  20  10
Homestead        83  72  83  73 /  40  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  85  74  85  73 /  40  20  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  84  73  84  73 /  40  20  20  10
Pembroke Pines   85  73  85  73 /  40  20  20  10
West Palm Beach  84  70  85  71 /  40  20  20  10
Boca Raton       85  73  84  73 /  40  20  20  10
Naples           85  71  87  70 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...CWC