126
FXUS62 KMFL 051703
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
103 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure centered near New England and the Canadian
Maritimes. Aloft, a trough extending from an area of low pressure
centered over northeastern Canada will exit into the Atlantic while
a southern stream shortwave trough moves eastward through the
southern Mississippi River valley. The overall pattern will allow
for a persistent easterly wind flow to continue even as the surface
high is pinched east and south to start the week.

Warm temperatures will continue as the moist tropical airmass
continues to hold over the region. With the easterly flow, Southwest
Florida will reach the lower 90s for the afternoon highs and the
Atlantic sea breeze will help keep Southeast Florida in the mid to
upper 80s.

Morning Atlantic showers will transition to inland and Southwest
Florida thunderstorms for the afternoon with the retreat of any
remnant convection back to the coast with the sea breeze. While the
thunderstorms should be more of the garden variety, there is some
cooler air aloft which could allow for some stout convection where
boundary collisions occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic,
maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly
flow across the region through much of next week. 500 mb heights
begin to increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging
will build into the region from the west. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day next week with eastern areas more likely
to see any weak activity during the early afternoon hours
with the inland progression of the sea breeze. The east coast
breeze will continue to push further inland with slightly better
chances for isolated showers or storms across Southwest Florida
during the evening hours closer to sunset.

Overall rain chances will remain low through the week, but will
decrease even more as upper level ridging builds towards the end
of the week. High temperatures through the early portion of the
period will run in the low to mid 80s along the coasts with lower
90s likely for interior areas. By the middle to late portion of
the week, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s near the
coasts with mid to even upper 90s possible for interior areas. A
sobering reminder that another balmy South Florida summer is just
around the corner.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR through much of forecast period, except for bouts of sub-VFR
this afternoon at APF due to showers/storms. E/ESE wind around 10-15
kt with higher gusts. Gulf sea breeze may impact APF with onshore
flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with easterly surges at time,
especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty
winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will
generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or
less across the Gulf waters. During easterly wind surges,
conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along
the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk
may remain elevated through at least early week, especially
across the Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  85  75  85 /  10  20  10  20
West Kendall     72  87  72  88 /  10  20  10  30
Opa-Locka        73  87  73  88 /  10  20  10  20
Homestead        74  85  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  75  84  75  85 /  10  10  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  74  85  74  85 /  10  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   74  88  74  89 /  10  10  10  20
West Palm Beach  72  85  72  86 /  10  10  10  20
Boca Raton       74  86  73  87 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           71  90  72  89 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...RAG