567
FXUS63 KMKX 132045
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
345 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue this
  afternoon and evening. A few afternoon thunderstorms may
  produce briefly gusty winds and marginally severe hail.

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact air
  quality through this afternoon in portions of southwestern
  Wisconsin.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms expected to impact
  southern Wisconsin late this week and into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 345 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Spotty shower and thunderstorm activity should continue into
this evening as a cold front sinks south and a lake breeze
boundary pushes inland. So far this afternoon, brief gusty winds
have been observed along with up to quarter sized hail with the
stronger cells. This should be the ceiling of intensity for any
more storms that develop this afternoon. Tonight, the front
should sink south and thunder should give way to showery
precipitation as weak WAA aloft continues north of an area of
low pressure that`s expected to move east along the Ohio River
Valley. Showery activity will continue for the first half of
Tuesday, mainly along and south of I-94, and then we should dry
out late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Wednesday through Sunday:

Wednesday will feature another day of quiet weather as we transition
from weak ridging to another approaching trough. A weak shortwave
swinging across MN will start to phase with a shortwave trough over
the central Mississippi River Valley. This mid-level forcing, in
combination with upper level forcing in the right entrance region of
an upper jet streak, will help produce shower and thunderstorm
chances Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. This is not a
really favorable setup for severe, but it has some potential for
marginal stuff (again).

The next trough of interest comes across the MN/Canadian border
Saturday night, but the better forcing is north of our area.

Temps will be warming through the week. Upper ridging will then take
hold for the weekend with some differences in timing of the sfc warm
frontal passage. A warm weekend is expected with another Sunday
possibly in the 80s. Rain chances of 20-30 percent chances are
forecast via warm, moist advection.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 325 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon
along and ahead of a cold front that is slowly sinking
southward. Winds north of the front will be northerly while
winds south of the front will be south to southwesterly and are
expected to remain light, save for any sites impacted by
thunderstorms, where brief gusty winds may occur.

Any ceilings the rest afternoon should be mostly VFR ranging
from around 4000 to 7000 ft, with bases around 2500 ft possible
with any storms. Overnight, ceilings will lower to MVFR with
the lowest heights around 1000ft along the WI/IL border as low
pressure passes south of the state. Showery rain will also
continue along the border. Low celings along the WI/IL border
will continue into the first half of tomorrow, and will rise
with time Tuesday afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 320 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Low pressure of 29.4 inches and a cold front will slowly sink
southeast with time overnight. Behind the front, the pressure
gradient will support gusty north to northeast winds over the
middle third of the lake, with gusts to 25 knots. These gusts
should continue through Tuesday into early Wednesday. High
pressure will then build into the upper Great Lakes on Wednesday,
allowing winds to become more easterly and ease in strength with
time.

Locally, a winds and waves will reach Small Craft Advisory
conditions tonight and will continue into early Wednesday
morning as the north to northeasterly winds become gusty.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 AM
     Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.

&&

$$

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