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000
FXUS64 KMOB 160445
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An IFR/MVFR ceiling along with fog will likely develop across
much of the area overnight, then improves to VFR conditions by mid
Tuesday morning. Southeasterly winds at 5 to 10 knots are expected
overnight near the coast while further inland winds become light
and variable. A southeasterly to southerly flow at 10 to 15 knots
develops on Tuesday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions over the area will be replaced by a mostly IFR
ceiling developing overnight along with fog. Conditions improve
to VFR by around mid morning Tuesday. Winds become calm or light
and variable early this evening, then a southerly to southeasterly
flow at 10 to 15 knots develops on Tuesday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dry and pleasant conditions continue through early this week. An
upper level ridge lingers overhead through tonight before gradually
sliding eastward on Tuesday while a surface high pressure remains
meanders over the Florida Peninsula and far western Atlantic. Low
level moisture will continue to increase given the persistent onshore
flow, but the only real impacts of this boundary layer moisture
will be the potential for patchy to areas of fog late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Guidance is especially pinging on areas of
fog over in south central Alabama and the Florida panhandle and a
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed in these areas. Outside of any
fog development, conditions will remain dry with increasing clouds
expected on Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight drop down into the
middle 50s over far south central Alabama with upper 50s and lower
60s over the remainder of the area. Highs on Tuesday warm back into
the lower and middle 80s inland with upper 70s along the immediate
coastal interface. /14

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Rather non-impactful weather pattern continues through the early
part of the weekend, and generally into the early part of next
week as well. Upper ridging will be sliding east of the forecast
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with general zonal flow aloft
then expected over the Gulf coast region into the early part of
this coming weekend. At the surface, high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic off the Florida east coast ridges back toward
the west and across our area through late week. This will
maintain a mostly onshore low level flow across our area this
week, with moisture gradually increasing, but little if any
precipitation is expected through the week. With the increased low
level moisture could see some patchy late night fog at times this
week. There could be some subtle shortwave energy in the westerly
flow aloft that could force an isolated shower or two, but will
not carry any PoP at this time through Saturday. Late Saturday
night into Sunday a slightly more pronounced upper trough will
move across the Gulf coast states and may provide for some more
unsettled weather in the form of increased rain chances and
perhaps an isolated storm or two prior to the approach of a cold
front late Saturday night into Sunday. At this time we will carry
a 30-50 percent PoP across the area for Sunday. By Monday of next
week, the front passes to our east and ridging aloft begins to
rebuild across our area, so the chances for rain will be short
lived. Warm temperatures expected through most of the week with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. By the end of the forecast
period look for a slight cool down, with highs mainly in the 70s
Sunday and Monday. Sunday night lows will be cooler as well,
mainly in the 50s. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

No significant impacts are expected through the weekend. A light to
occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the weekend
with light offshore flow developing by early next week. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      62  79  65  80  65  84  66  85 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Pensacola   64  77  65  78  67  80  67  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      63  76  66  76  68  78  68  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   57  84  59  82  62  86  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Waynesboro  60  84  63  83  64  85  65  88 /   0   0   0  10   0  10  10  10
Camden      58  82  61  82  62  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  10   0  10  10  10
Crestview   56  83  58  81  62  84  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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