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000
FXUS63 KMPX 121725 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

ELEVATED CONVECTION SCATTERED ABOUT MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SOME
SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. HIRES MODELS INDICATE SOME FORM OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING....WITH PERHAPS REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHLY CAPPED OVER
THE FAR SOUTH...WITH HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOTED. IF COMPLEX
DOES BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS DEVELOP
WITH THE SYSTEM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z THU. WILL CONTINUE
THIS TREND AS WELL...BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS DRIVEN
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A CLEARING SKY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.  GRADIENT
WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION
OVER THE WEST.  THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THAT REGION BY 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE EXTENDED RANGES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LITTERED WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS ACTIVE.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE DRY STINT WILL END ON FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW /MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ ENSUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEPICTED BY PROGGED 305-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/ETC AND THEIR ILLUSTRATIONS OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST MN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
POPS SEEM WARRANTED.

LESS CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE COLD
FRONT HAVING PASSED ACROSS AT LEAST A DECENT PORTION OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA /SOUTH CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI/. SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING A DRY DAY FOR A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PASSES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/MOISTURE IS LOW...SO POPS IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME
ARE IN THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE.

AFTER THE WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ATTENDANT WITH THE
ANTICIPATED PATTERN WOULD BE MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN NE SD. AS THIS LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL SHIFT SE...WITH
ALL TAF SITES FREE OF PRECIP BY 02Z. THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND RELIED PRETTY
HEAVILY ON ITS DEPICTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IF/WHEN A
TSTMS MOVES OVER A SITE...EXPECT THE VIS TO DIP TO 1-3SM WITH +RA AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS (DIRECTION BEING FAIRLY
VARIABLE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON N-E). AFTER CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH A SMATTERING OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY GRADIENT OF
5-10KTS. CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE NIGHT AND A SLACKENING WIND IN
THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION
CONSIDERING ALL THE RAIN TODAY. WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED FOG MENTION AT
KRWF...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MOST SITES.

MSP...BAND OF STEADY -RA WILL BE NE OF THE AIRFIELD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PD...BUT SCT TSRA BACK TO THE SW WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE
AIRFIELD...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 19-22Z. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HEAVY RA AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS. THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 00Z WITH VFR PREVAILING. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THANKS TO THE SATURATED
GROUND...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE ANY
LONG-LIVED VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU NGT...VFR. E WIND 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. SE WIND 10-20KTS.
FRI NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE. TSRA POSSIBLE. S BCMG W 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JCA