000
FXUS63 KMPX 181742
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT
GENERATED A SWATH OF CONVECTION ORIENTED ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.
ASSOCIATED ELEVATED COLD POCKET LED TO AN IMPRESSIVE STEEPENING OF
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE HAIL WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING...SO THE CONCERN
FOR SEVERE HAIL HAS LESSENED...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THIS
MORNING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOPWRF
IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SCENARIO WELL...AND INDICATES THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP EXITING THE AREA BY 15Z...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MN AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
NEAR THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WILL THEN BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH
MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SLOW PROGRESSION OF NEW
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER FAR WESTERN MONTANA...INTO FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR INITIATION OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
T-STORMS OVER WESTERN FA WED MORN...WITH OVERSPREADING OF
SAME ACROSS REMAINDER OF FA BY THE EVENING HOURS. BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHIFTS TO CENTRAL
MN AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI IN RESPONSE TO MDT THETA E
ADVECTION...AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT PRECIPITATED BY RIGHT REAR
QUAD FROM 105KT JET MAX STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER MN PORTION OF FA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALSO INCREASES OVER WESTERN HALF OF MN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN.
LIMITED QPF FOR THIS SLICE OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CONVERGENCE
ALOFT NOTED ON GFS40 250MB LEVEL. MODERATE 850MB JET TAKES
SHAPE OVER MUCH OF MN FA THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING
NOTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS TIME PERIOD. VERY SOLID
CAP DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF MN/FAR WESTERN WI DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. VERY HIGH JOULE COUNT NOTED BY FRIDAY
AFTN OVER MUCH OF CWA (AT LEAST 4000). IF STRONG CAP DOES
SET UP AND CAN BE PIERCED...COULD BE A SETUP FOR AT LEAST
SCT SEVERE WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRANSPORT
VECTORS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO PORTEND FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI
FROM 21/21Z-22/06Z. MID LEVEL CAP COULD THWART CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN NOTED FROM NE NEBRASKA
TO NE MN. GFS SOLUTION STALLS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MN/WI
REGION INTO AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH EUROPEAN PUSHING BOUNDARY
THROUGH AT LEAST 24 HOURS EARLIER. KEPT MUCH OF LONG TERM
FORECAST TEMPS AND PCPN TRENDS IN PLACE DUE TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY QUESTION MARKS...ESPECIALLY SAT-MON PERIOD. FINALLY
...LOOK FOR ZONAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY....WITH 50H RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL
PORTION OF CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY BREAKING UP/LIFTING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SE MN AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WI. IT/S A SLOW GO WITH HIGH
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN AND A VERY
NEGATIVE CU RULE. KMSP/KRNH SHOULD BE SCT-BKN035 BY 21Z. THE
CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FROM KSTC THROUGH KRNH
AND KEAU UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. THE WET SOIL ALONG THE HYDROLAPSE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ON THE NAM BUFKIT GAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MVFR FOG IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SE WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS FROM KAXN TO
KRWF. SOME GUSTINESS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE MORNING WITH
SPEEDS IN THE LOWER 20 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS HOW MUCH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN
PROGRESS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME WITH VARIOUS SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY SHOWING MUCH. HOWEVER...PARAMETERS ARE
IN PLACE ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER FOR SOME ACTIVITY.

KMSP...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH AN EAST WIND UP TO 10 KNOTS. VFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SOME CONCERN THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HEADING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR WITH CHC OF MVFR AND SHRA/TS. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TS. SSE WINDS 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TS. S WINDS 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...RAH