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000
FXUS63 KMPX 122000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AFTER TSTMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...WEATHER WILL BE MUCH
QUIETER...AND DRIER ON THU. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SPINNING IN NE
SD IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TSTMS ACROSS S MN. CLUSTERS OF STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER FEATURE IN SW/SC
MN...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NE WHILE THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
SHIFTS SE. SO FAR TODAY...THE BIGGEST THREAT IN OUR AREA HAS BEEN
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
RECEIVED 3+ INCHES OF RAIN. THE PROSPECTS OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE WX
ACROSS S MN/W WI IS LOW DUE TO THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS/
INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR S AND E...BUT ANY
ISOLATED SEVERE WX WE DO GET SHOULD BE OF THE WIND VARIETY. THE
LAST OF THE -SHRA/TS SHOULD EXIT MPX CWA BY 02Z...WITH CLEARING
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM N TO S. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT INTO W MN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A SLOWLY
MOVING LOW HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...WE DID INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY
AND WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS VERY NEAR AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SE FLOW ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN FRIDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT... WILL
MOVE EITHER ACROSS SOUTHERN MN OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT
PERHAPS ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IS AIMED AT FAR SOUTHERN MN LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASES
DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. FORECAST PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL NEARLY
1.75 INCHES... OR ABOUT 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS RIGHT AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HENCE...HIGH POPS REMAIN IN PLAY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FA.

THE NAM IS THE ONLY SOLUTION THAT DRIES THE CWA EARLY ON SATURDAY
AS IT PUSHES THE FRONT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FA. THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER ON SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS WITH SMALL POPS HELD ON TO FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. ITS
QUITE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ON MONDAY WITH THE SHOWERS DIMINISHING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER BACK TO BACK. THE PATTERN DOES NOT HOLD LONG AS MORE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS INDICATED TO MOVE INTO THE FA FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A COOL
START WITH HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN NE SD. AS THIS LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL SHIFT SE...WITH
ALL TAF SITES FREE OF PRECIP BY 02Z. THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND RELIED PRETTY
HEAVILY ON ITS DEPICTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IF/WHEN A
TSTMS MOVES OVER A SITE...EXPECT THE VIS TO DIP TO 1-3SM WITH +RA AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS (DIRECTION BEING FAIRLY
VARIABLE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON N-E). AFTER CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA...WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH A SMATTERING OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY GRADIENT OF
5-10KTS. CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE NIGHT AND A SLACKENING WIND IN
THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION
CONSIDERING ALL THE RAIN TODAY. WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND WIND...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED FOG MENTION AT
KRWF...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MOST SITES.

MSP...BAND OF STEADY -RA WILL BE NE OF THE AIRFIELD AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PD...BUT SCT TSRA BACK TO THE SW WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE
AIRFIELD...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 19-22Z. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HEAVY RA AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS. THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 00Z WITH VFR PREVAILING. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THANKS TO THE SATURATED
GROUND...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE ANY
LONG-LIVED VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU NGT...VFR. E WIND 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. SE WIND 10-20KTS.
FRI NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE. TSRA POSSIBLE. S BCMG W 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCA
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JCA