037
FNUS73 KMPX 112020
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Glacial Lakes Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
320 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 CDT on May 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Current RH values at nearby stations range from 22 to 24 and as
the temperatures is near peak for the day this should be today`s
minimum RH. As temperatures start to fall this evening RHs will go
up. Winds are below criteria, but still worth notable from the
west or southwest at 12 mph gusting to 18 mph. These winds should
be more consistently from the southwest this evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Temperature.........75 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................23 percent at ignition...Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 12 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds around 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /111900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /115800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 17 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  PC  MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............75  76  76  76  72  67  65  63  61  60  59  57
RH..............23  22  22  24  30  40  45  48  53  55  55  62
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  10  10  7   8   9   10  10  10  12  10
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  14  10  12  14  15  17  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...7.5 7.7 7.6 2.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  17  16  13  10  10  13  15  16  15  15  15
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (105700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (28300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Max 80.
RH..................Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 13 to 16 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (90800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (108600
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest 13
                    to 21 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Carletta
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413784.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org