Text Products for FWS Issued by MQT

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
000
FNUS73 KMQT 131044
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Mike White...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
644 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure and mostly sunny skies through much of today will give
way to a low pressure system and scattered showers moving across the burn
area tonight. Nearly 0.15 inches of rain is possible tonight. Daytime
mixing and drying will allow dew points and RHs to lower this afternoon
with a minimum RH approaching 30 percent. Steady 10-15 mph northwest
winds over the burn area into early afternoon could become light (5-8 mph)
southerly or even easterly late afternoon into early evening as a
developing lake breeze off Lake Michigan plays havoc with the wind
directions. Winds will generally be light southeasterly tonight ahead of
the approaching low pressure system, and then will become northerly at
around 10 mph on Sunday in the wake of the system`s cold frontal passage.
Expect good RH recovery tonight to near 100 percent with higher min RHs
(near 50 percent) on Sunday, under a cooler, Lake Superior modified air
mass.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny, then increasing clouds late (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........34 at ignition...Max 56.
RH..................78 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Dewpoint............26.
33-foot winds.......Winds northwest at 12 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 9 to 14
                    mph shifting to the north 5 to 8 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    north up to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1200 ft
                    AGL increasing to 4000-4500 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (75) at ignition. Max...good (344.0)
                    increasing to good to excellent (486.0-835.0)
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......11 decreasing to 7.3.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   8   7   7   12  18  23  36  49  62
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............34  36  40  45  49  51  54  55  56  55
Dewpoint........28  28  28  28  28  27  26  26  28  29
RH..............78  71  61  52  44  38  32  33  34  36
33 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
33 ft wind spd..12  14  14  14  13  13  13  8   8   8
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..10  11  11  11  10  10  10  6   6   6
Wind gust.......13  14  14  14  14  14  14  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.2 2.4 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.0
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
VIndx kt-ft/100.8   34  62  79  84  81  73  64  57  49
Ceiling (kft)...11  11  11  12  11  11  11  9.7 8.5 7.3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Dewpoint............32 increasing to 35 overnight.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds up to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......2300-3800 ft AGL decreasing to 200-1500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (22.0-390.0).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.13 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......8.3 increasing to 8.0 early in the evening,
                    then decreasing to 7.0 overnight decreasing to
                    5.9 overnight decreasing to 4.1.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........65  68  71  76  80  85  84  84  84  73  62  52
Weather cov.....    SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  20  30  30  40  40  40  40  40  40  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  53  50  48  46  44  42  40  39  39  39  38
Dewpoint........30  31  32  32  33  34  34  35  35  35  36  36
RH..............39  43  49  54  60  67  74  80  84  87  89  92
33 ft wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
33 ft wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
Wind gust.......6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 3.5 3.1 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Haines index....4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VIndx kt-ft/100.39  33  29  28  23  16  10  6   4   3   3   3
Ceiling (kft)...8.3 9.2 10  9.5 8.7 8.0 7.0 5.9 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.1

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 56.
RH..................Min 52 percent.
Dewpoint............37 decreasing to 34 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 7 to 12 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1000 ft AGL increasing to 3000-4300 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (3.0-483.0).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.01 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......3.4 decreasing to 1.8.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........48     40     52     54     48     43
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............37     38     46     53     54     52
Dewpoint........36     37     38     39     38     35
RH..............98     99     76     59     54     52
33 ft wind......NE 5   NE 5   NW 9   N 10   N 10   N 12
20 ft wind......NE 4   NE 4   NW 7   N 8    N 8    N 10
Wind gust.......6      6      10     12     12     13
Mix hgt (ft)....100    300    2000   3700   4300   3700
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
VIndx kt-ft/100.1      2      23     45     48     44
Ceiling (kft)...3.4    1.8

$$
Forecaster...Voss
Requested by...Cory Henry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410539.0/MQT
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cory.r.henry@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
