242
FXUS64 KMRX 280517 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Issued a Windy Advisory for much of the far east Tennessee
Mountains and Foothills until 4 am ET Sunday. Southerly winds of
15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

Discussion:

A low-level jet will move across the region through early Sunday
morning with 850mb winds of 30-35 knots. A lee-side trough is
already developing off the higher elevations/foothills area. This
has increased the pressure gradients across the mountains with
winds at Camp Creek and Cove Mountains gusting 30-32 mph.

The mountain wave winds will increase over the next couple of
hours with gusts up to 45 mph possible. Have issued a wind
advisory for much of the east Tennessee mountains and foothills
until 4 am.

Otherwise, the low-level jet has pulled scattered to broken 5kft
clouds into southeast Tennessee/southwest North Carolina with
generally mostly clear elsewhere. Have updated sky cover.
Temperature forecast look good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions.

Discussion:

Upper ridging will remain over the southeast CONUS tonight and
into Sunday. This will keep dry conditions in place across the
forecast area. It will also keep us quite warm, with highs
tomorrow running 8-10 degrees above normal. Really not much else
to talk about in the short term. The H85 ridge will remain just
slightly to our east, so we`ll keep a moist southerly return flow
coming into the CWA. Should be enough for some scattered low
clouds tomorrow morning, but those will give way to mostly high
clouds by midday. Will likely see some gusty winds tomorrow as
well as we mix out. But that`s about it. Enjoy the nice weather!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

2. Active weather pattern will bring chances for rain Tuesday
through the week.

Discussion:

By Sunday evening the upper trough over the central U.S. will
creeping slowly eastward. The associated cold front will be marching
slowly across western Kentucky and West Tennessee by Monday
afternoon. Starting Monday night into Tuesday, the front and
rainfall is expected to produce generally light rainfall amounts of
up to one half inch. There will not be much cold air behind the
front so temperatures will remain above seasonal norms.

A shortwave ridge builds across the eastern U.S. causing the
temperatures to rise into the 80s across the region on Wednesday. A
series of shortwaves will eject eastward from Texas and Mississippi
on Thursday causing rain chances to increase by Thursday afternoon
into Friday. This system appears to bring more significant rainfall
to the area exceeding perhaps over an inch to many locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

No aviation impacts are expected this period, with VFR conditions
at all sites. CHA will have some broken to overcast clouds this
morning around 5-6kft, then become scattered around noon. South
winds may increase to around 10-12 kt at CHA this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  61  84  63 /   0   0  10  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  59  83  62 /   0   0   0  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  59  84  62 /   0   0   0  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  54  82  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...DGS