Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 030449
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAY SEE SOME A SPOTTY SHOWER TRY TO POP UP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40KTS OVERNIGHT...AND ADDED
A FEW MORE MID CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNDER DEVELOPING
TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
WESTERN UPPER LOW WAS INDUCING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 80M IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST..WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSED THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW...WITH THE NEAREST ONE FROM WESTERN WI TO CENTRAL IA
AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM NEAR THE UT/AZ/NV BORDER.  110-KT UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAK WAS COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. MOISTURE AT 850MB WAS WIDESPREAD FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD...WITH A 30-35KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING
TOMROROW NIGHT.  IN THE MEANTIME...BELIEVE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AND LACK OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS
AT BAY...DESPITE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
EJECTS FROM CO TOWARD EASTERN SD...AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN
NORTHEAST NEB. SHOULD BE A BREAK AFTER THAT WAVE...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS THREATENING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AGAIN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO SLIDE EAST AND NEXT POSSIBLE WAVE
EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  LOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AND CONTINUED WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US INTO NORTHWESTERN ONT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING FOCUSED HIGH-CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AND DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND A RETURN OF AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. REINFORCING COLD PUSH...AND
THE ARRIVAL OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOOKS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD STABILIZE
THE AIRMASS QUITE A BIT...WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN STORMS BY
TUESDAY EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL AND STAY BELOW NORMAL
BEGINNING TUESDAY BEYOND THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET COULD CREATE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KOMA AND KLNK SO DID
INCLUDE IN TAF WORDING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



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