Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 300443
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The main concerns in the short term will be location of spotty
thunderstorms and temperatures...then more organized thunderstorms
with the frontal passage Monday night.

On this morning`s OAX sounding we did have some sprinkles around
with some moisture around 10K ft and 0.92 PWAT.

The latest visible satellite imagery shows and area of cumulus to
the northeast and a few thunderstorms over northern Iowa. These
are associated with a departing weak shortwave trough on the
backside of the stronger h5 trough over the Great Lakes.
Additional thunderstorms were developing over southwest Nebraska
and parts of Kansas. This is tied to some deeper moisture...a weak
shortwave...surface heating...and frontal boundaries in the area.
Over the Carolinas of note was tropical depression Bonnie.

Tonight...some mid level ridging is forecast...however a shortwave
trough is forecast to move into western Kansas this evening and
parts of the central Plains by 12z. Each model tends to key in on
a slightly different locations for where spotty storms may develop
in our area. The best chance for storms will be over Kansas and
possible into southwest parts of the forecast area...and then tend
to weaken. By midnight...the HiRes ARW/NMM hint there could be
storms in northeast Nebraska into the early morning hours. Will
keep isolated pops going and include chance pops for these other
slightly more favored areas.

Memorial Day looks warm and muggy with most highs 78 to 85 and
highest dewpoints in the 60s. The shortwave trough tracking across
the Northern Rockies is forecast to close off inducing surface low
pressure to develop over parts of South Dakota and western
Nebraska with a cold front in the western part of Nebraska. h85
moisture increases and with heating...kept low pops for storms in
for the morning with thunderstorms chances increasing during the
afternoon ahead of the cold front.

Thunderstorm chances increase Monday night with thunderstorms
likely ahead of and along the cold front. Some locally heavy rain
will be possible with 1.25 to 1.5 inches of PWAT pooling ahead of
the front. The slight risk for severe storms is generally west of
the area for Day 1 and Day 2...however may include parts of the
area with the cold front. Temperatures for Tuesday will be
cooler...in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorm should generally
move out of the northwest part of the forecast area during the
morning...lingering...and re-firing Tuesday afternoon with the
front. Cooler...drier air pushes in behind the front for  Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A subtle shortwave may affect the area thursday night and another
weather shortwave passage Friday night. Each one of these could
bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms with them. The
northwest pattern aloft is drier than we have been. Highs should
be in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorms may affect KOFK 06-08z, but not confident anything
will hold together to affect KLNK/KOMA. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the period. Additional thunderstorms may develop 22z-06z
as a cold front begins to move into the area.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...DeWald


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