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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 190908
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
408 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TO START OUT THE DAY EXPECT GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER ONCE LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION LEAVES THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EAST INTO NEBRASKA THIS EVENING ALLOWING A SURFACE FRONT TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. HERE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES PUSH 50 KNOTS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER...BUT STILL REMAINS. AWAY FROM THE
MODERATE RISK AREA HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HAVE
FAVORED HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON MONDAY AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S
ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER THE COOLER WEATHER LINGERS UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY DEPARTS ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...19/06Z FORECAST JUST CARRIED MENTION
THROUGH 10Z WITH INITIAL ROUND. AFTER THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/LOWER RANGE MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING CAN IMPROVE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MIXING
FROM CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WOULD IMPACT THAT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...CHERMOK

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office