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000
FXUS63 KOAX 201726
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to drop to or below freezing this
  morning and tomorrow night.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday
  night. Highest probabilities (60% chance) of rain will be
  south of I-80.

- Another potential storm system will may bring chances for
  precipitation regionwide next weekend. As of now there is
  substantial uncertainty in timing and details of this storm
  system. These details will become more clear over the coming
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

     Today through Wednesday Night...

Light winds of 5 to 10 mph out of the north/northwest will
reinforce below average temperatures through tonight across the
region. Radiative cooling and weak cold air advection will help
nighttime lows drop to or below freezing this morning and
tomorrow morning. As such, a freeze warning has been issued for
tonight and will likely be reissued for tomorrow night across
portions of eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.

Beginning Monday, more seasonal temperatures return to the
region with highs in the 60s. On Monday, temperatures will
continue to warm with highs in the 70s. After 7PM Monday
evening, there will be a chance (30 to 50% chance) of scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the
area. Coverage of precipitation should increase as the night
goes on and the front moves to the southeast. The highest
chances for rain will be south of I-80 after midnight. Rainfall
totals up to a quarter of an inch will be possible. Temperatures
will drop back into the 60s behind the cold front and remain
near average into the end of next week.

     Thursday and Friday...

Signal amongst medium range guidance has been increasing for a
more active weather pattern beginning next weekend. The GFS and
ECMWF both show the next potential storm system to impact the
Plains may move through the region Thursday or Friday. However,
there is substantial differences between models on the details
and timing of this storm system. More progressive models such as
the GFS have the disturbance ejecting into the Great Plains
Thursday afternoon. This scenario would limit the amount of
moisture return into the region and likely result in widespread
rain and cooler temperatures (in the 40s and 50s). Other models
such as the ECMWF are slower with the timing of this potential
system, suggesting the main upper-level disturbance may eject
out into the Plains as late as Friday evening. This slower
progression would allow for more robust moisture return at the
surface and bring the potential for scattered thunderstorms,
some of which may be on the stronger side. Though uncertainty
regarding these details remains high at this time, the general
likelihood of a storm system sometime by the end of next week is
high and all should expect rain and storm chances to return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A
diurnally driven cumulus deck at or above 4000ft AGL will
diminish with sunset as will gusty northwesterly winds. Gusts
this afternoon will top out around 20-25 kts and diminish to
under 8 kts after sunset.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Darrah
AVIATION...Kern