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000
FXUS63 KOAX 152028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITHIN THIS BAND WAS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASK ASSOCIATED A 130 M H5 HEIGHT FALL. THERE WAS ALSO AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM WESTERN KS INTO WEST TEXAS.
THE EML HAD BEEN PRETTY MUCH ELIMINATED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
MUCH COOLER H7 TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OF +3 TO +6 C FM KS
INTO TX. AT H85 A FNT EXTNDD FM SRN MN INTO ERN CO WITH A POOL OF
+15 C DEW POINTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE 19Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN KS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT NEWD
THROUGH ERN NEB AND NW IA.

FORECAST...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS SHEAR AXIS HAS LED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA OF LIFT
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD THIS EVENING WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING EAST OUT OF OUR CWA. THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
AREA OF LIFT...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...HAD LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH ELIMINATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WEATHER. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FM ODX TO BVN TO LCG...BUT CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC POP FOR A TSRA ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND INTO THE SRN CWA THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE
NIGHT DOES APPEAR TO BE DRY THOUGH AS ANY MCS ACTIVITY MOVING OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ON SUNDAY ARE A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT THE DAY SHOULD START OFF
DRY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THOUGH...AND WITH LIMITED
CAPPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. HOW FAR AND FAST THESE
MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON IS A BIT IN QUESTION CURRENTLY...BUT
WITH SEASONABLY STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THE SETUP APPEARS TO FAVOR A QUICK MOVING LINE AND
THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MID CHC POPS IN THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. THE FRNT WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE FA ON MON AND WE DID ADD A SCHC POP
FOR AFTERNOON POP UP TSRA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...BUT THE PERIOD MON NIGHT THROUGH WED CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY.
THEREAFTER THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WORK WEEK...MOST LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING INTO THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.

BOUSTEAD


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR OR MOVING TOWARD ALL THREE TAF SITES...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH WORDING THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF KOFK...BUT MAY SEE SHRA MOVE INTO KOMA/KLNK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO WORDING FOR A FIRST GUESS ON
TIMING. KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW AS STORMS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AND
UPDATE IF THUNDER IS THREATENING THE SITES. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TODAY...WITH DIRECTIONS VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MAYES

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$