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000
FXUS63 KOAX 151730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK...KOMA.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD.

DEE



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO FAR SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS OF
0730Z AND LATEST 11U-3.9 STLT SHOWED SOME ACCAS-TYPE CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DVLPG IN SWRN IA. RAP/HRRR DID DVLP SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR
THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND RADAR/STLT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH FORECAST RELEASE TIME WHETHER TO INCLUDE SMALL POPS FAR
SERN ZONES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WAS POST-FRONTAL ON SRN END OF WESTERLIES OVER WRN SD AND
ADJACENT STATES AIDED BY H7 WARM ADVCTN. OTHER ACTIVITY FM WRN
NEBR TOWARD SCNTRL SD ON H7 THERMAL GRADIENT PROBABLY WARRANTS
ADDING A SMALL SHOWER CHC TO NERN NEBR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
BULK OF DAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MIXING THIS AFTN SHOULD BE
MUCH LESS THAN WHAT HELPED PRODUCE THE RECORD SHATTERING MAX TEMPS
OF TUESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REACH AT LEAST 80.
NEAR OR ABOVE WARMER MAV LOOKED REASONABLE S WITH A BLEND N FOR A
START. STRONGER HEATING SOUTH OF STALLED BOUNDARY IN FAR SRN ZONES
COULD TRIGGER A LATE AFTN TSTM S...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THERE COULD
HOLD OFF TILL EVENING.

A WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD WRN ZONES
TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK INTO NERN NEBR ON THURSDAY. SYSTEM
APPARENTLY WILL PULL IN A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AND MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
THE REGION...SPCLY NRN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEARED A
BIT TOO WARM BASED ON CLOUDS AND PSBL PRECIP...PRIOR FORECAST
LOOKED BETTER WITH GENERALLY NO CHANGES MADE.

A GENERAL DRYING TREND EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS WAVE DEPARTS AND UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF
WEEKEND TROUGH. FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER AND TRENDED TOWARD OR A LITTLE
ABOVE WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH SMALL POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FRI NGT/SATURDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES...HIGHER CHCS
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW MUCH
ENERGY INITIALLY EJECTS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PRECIP ADJUSTMENTS IN
LATER FORECASTS...IT WAS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF HAD SLOWED UP A BIT
AND WAS CLOSER TO GFS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY DELAY BEST PRECIP CHCS
UNTIL SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE FA...BUT IN ANY EVENT...SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.

CHERMOK

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

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