000
FXUS63 KOAX 220442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KOMA AND KLNK BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AND CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE. A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OCCURING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HOWEVER
THEY TEND TO DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH KOFK. WILL KEEP THE TAFS
DRY BUT THEY MAY ENCOUNTER A SPRINKLE OR TWO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KOFK ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CATEGORIES AT ALL SITES IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.
A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR DECK IS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

KERN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE SHOWERS...CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...THEN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.

AT 12Z...THE H5 LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  PER THE UA MAPS...WARMER
AIR IS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.  THIS
WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE +8C TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AT ABR...HOWEVER IT
WAS ONLY +3C AT FSD.  AS A RESULT...THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AND THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SD AND MN
WEDNESDAY.  THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND WILL TRY
TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINLY FOCUS CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH WITH ISOLD SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND MAINLY DRY
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WITH
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY 46 TO 51 AND
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50 NEAR THE SD BORDER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH DECREASING CLOUDCOVER.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE WEST COAST. WE WILL SEE MID
LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING THURSDAY
NIGHT TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 70S.

THERE WILL BE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO WAVES OF ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CONVECTION WILL BE PERIODIC...SO EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER IN THE 70S AND 8099/99S AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD
AMOUNT A RAIN-FREE PERIODS AS WELL.

ZAPOTOCNY

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$