858
FXUS64 KOHX 030527
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Dry and relatively quiet day so far across the mid state, with
temperatures already in the 80s for many locations. Highs are
still expected to get to the mid to upper 80s, with even a reading
hitting 90 possible this afternoon thanks to the upper ridge thats
currently moving eastward. An approaching shortwave trough from
the southwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
likely after midnight and through the day Friday. The trough does
weaken as it moves over the mid state, and another weak shortwave
follows behind for Friday evening/overnight. Despite a weak cold
front moving through Friday, severe storm chances are low, which
is due to the deep layer shear remaining weak due to the
shortwaves also being on the weak side. Instability will still be
in place, so cant rule out some heavy downpours and even some
isolated gusty winds, but lightning will be the focus for any
outdoor events tomorrow and into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Saturday will see continued chances for showers and storms,
especially in the south and east as the weak shortwave trough
moves northeastward. A break in the showers and storms looks
possible Saturday night into the morning Sunday with mainly
isolated chances for rain, but yet another trough and diurnal
support brings showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast
Sunday afternoon. A stronger upper trough will be just off to our
west, but still deep layer shear will remain weak, so the severe
storm threat remains low at this time.

Temperatures will remain warm next week as southwest flow aloft
stays in place, but that also keeps the active pattern going with
any disturbance aloft allowing for showers and storms to develop.
Current forecast has rain chances in each day next week, mainly
during the afternoon and evening when diurnal support is best.
Rainfall amounts tonight through Thursday next week look to be
around 1 to 2 inches for most of the area, but obviously any
stronger convection would bring the potential for locally higher
amounts of rain. Models are not on board with any severe risk next
week either as of current runs this morning, so it looks to be
mainly afternoon showers and storms bringing some needed rainfall,
but stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Already we are beginning to see scattered light showers develop
across Middle Tennessee as a surface trough approaches the mid
state from the west. For now, conditions at all terminals are VFR,
but not for much longer. During the next several hours, showers
will become more prevalent and ceilings will lower to MVFR and
will remain there for much of the morning. Expect ceilings to
improve somewhat during the afternoon as we experience some
surface heating and boundary layer mixing, but rain chances will
stay with us. There will be some instability in place, so we do
expect a few thunderstorms to develop mainly during the
afternoon, but they will be scattered in nature and not prevalent
enough to warrant mention in the TAFs just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  65  80  64 /  80  70  60  30
Clarksville    78  63  79  63 /  80  40  50  30
Crossville     75  60  74  59 /  80  70  80  40
Columbia       80  63  82  63 /  70  70  70  30
Cookeville     76  62  76  61 /  90  80  80  40
Jamestown      76  60  75  59 /  90  70  80  40
Lawrenceburg   80  64  80  63 /  70  70  70  30
Murfreesboro   80  64  81  62 /  80  70  70  30
Waverly        78  63  81  63 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Rose