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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250929
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
529 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds in through today and remains over
the region into Saturday. The high will give way to an
approaching warm front Saturday night. The front will move into
the area on Sunday and may stall over Connecticut and Long
Island into Monday as high pressure noses down the New England
coast. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and move
through Tuesday night. Another cold front may approach on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A freeze warning remains in effect across portions of
northeastern New Jersey, into the Lower Hudson Valley, and
across interior southern Connecticut until 900 AM EDT. At 08Z
temperatures remained above freezing, and are still expected to
fall to or just below freezing before sunrise. However,
confidence in this occurring is low as temperatures have been
remaining higher than forecast.

Otherwise, high pressure builds in from the northwest through
today with a chilly airmass moving into the region as
temperatures remain around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With the strong Canadian airmass settling over the region
tonight, with near calm to light winds, and clear skies,
temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
And once again freezing temperatures are expected across the
interior zones. With the aforementioned conditions have a
little more confidence that freezing conditions will occur
tonight, and have issued a freeze watch for late tonight into
early Friday morning for portions of northeastern New Jersey,
into portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and across interior
southern Connecticut, and coastal New London.

The high remains over the region Friday and Friday night with
some modification to the air mass as temperatures remain around
5 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Model guidance still forecasting an omega block over the eastern
CONUS, with its western leg over the central states and multiple
shortwaves lifting NE through the Plains states and upper Great
Lakes, its eastern leg over the Canadian Maritimes and adjacent
Atlantic, and an upper ridge over the East. The first of the
shortwaves lifting through the Plains and Great Lakes will send a
warm front toward the area Sat night with some showers that should
then move into the area on Sunday, then stall as the eastern leg of
the block over the Atlantic strengthens, with low pressure well out
to sea and high pressure nosing down the New England coast in the
mid level confluence in its wake. NBM captures the details well and
was used through the period.

After a cool Saturday with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s, a
warmup should begin on Sunday especially for the NYC metro area,
lower Hudson Valley, and NE NJ. Mon should be the warmest of these
days, with highs in the lower 80s from NYC north/west, and into the
70s most elsewhere except for ern Long Island and the SE CT coast,
where highs should remain in the 60s. Temps on Tue are uncertain and
could be a few degrees cooler than fcst if the western Atlantic low
and maritime high pressure in its wake exert more influence.

The omega block should start to break down on Tue, with the upper
ridge weakening and a cold front approaching from the west, bringing
the chance for showers and tstms. The front will pass through Tue
night, and could be followed by another cold front on Wed.


&&

.AVIATION/09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong high pressure will build in through the end of the week.

VFR. N-NE winds still 10-15 kt (with a few gusts to 15-20 kt out
east) should veer more to the NE and diminish after daybreak. Winds
then veer around to the S/SE in the late morning or afternoon at
speeds 10 kt or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late tonight into Friday night: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Only slight chance of a shower Sat
night into early Sunday morning.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty northwest winds continue on the ocean waters early this
morning, and gradually diminish through the day as high pressure
builds into the waters. Small craft advisory conditions on the
ocean waters will subside by late morning, and an advisory
remains in effect. Then winds and seas will remain below
advisory levels through Friday night. On the non ocean waters
winds and seas remain below advisory levels today through Friday
night.

Quiet this weekend into early next week with winds/seas below
advisory criteria. Ocean seas could reach 4 ft Sunday night and
again Mon night. Fog may also become possible early next week
beginning Sunday night as more humid air traverses colder waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     CTZ005>008-012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-103.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET