Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

000
FGUS71 KOKX 111209
ESFOKX

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
800 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

This is the eight Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook in a series
of routine Winter/Spring Flood Potential statements intended to
provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash
flooding) over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey,
Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next
two weeks.

This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-Meteorological
factors which contribute to river flooding. These factors include
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water
equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future weather conditions.
This outlook does not address the severity of any future river
flooding.

The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from
April 14th through the 18th suggests above normal temperatures and
near normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area.
The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from April 16th through
the 22nd suggests above normal temperatures and near normal
precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area.

Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.
It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river
flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flooding
potential is considered low or below normal.

Current flooding - None.

Precipitation - Precipitation departures from normal across the
Hydrologic Service Area for the last 60 days were anywhere between 4
to 6 inches above normal across the entire Hydrologic Service Area.

Snow Conditions – Below normal. There is currently no snow on the
ground across the Hydrologic Service Area.

River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and
streams are running normal to above normal. Real-Time Water data can
be found by visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water.

Soil moisture – Above normal. Soil moisture and drought related data
and charts can be seen at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif and
www.drought.gov.

Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City
water supply system were 1 percent above normal. Reservoir levels
across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs were 6
percent above normal.

Summary - During the two-week outlook period ending on April 25th
expect temperatures to be above normal and precipitation to be near
normal across the Hydrologic Service Area.


For more information on the threat for river flooding please visit:
www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

For complete weather information, visit our web site at:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=okx

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY

You can follow us on Twitter at: @NWSNewYorkNY

This will be the last Spring Flood Potential Outlook issued by this
office.