000
FXUS65 KREV 252011
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
111 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Cooler weather along with periods of showers and thunderstorms will
persist through early Saturday. Potential thunderstorm risks include
gusty outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and localized heavy rain
and/or small hail. Please be aware of rapidly changing conditions
when outdoors. Drier weather and a slow warming trend are expected
to return Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Just like clockwork, it looks like another weekend of unsettled
weather for the Eastern Sierra and Western Nevada. Upper air
analysis from this morning shows an upper-level closed low off the
coast of northern California. This system will dictate the pattern
into early this weekend as it moves inland and deepens over the
Great Basin on Friday.

The upper jet associated with this system brushes by our region
today, leading to an uptick in northwesterly upper-level winds this
afternoon. Surface level winds likely peak around 25-35 mph this
evening, and are expected to remain elevated overnight into Friday
as the jet continues to dive southward into southern California.
Wind prone areas may see gusts closer to 40-45 mph during this
period.

This system will usher much cooler air aloft by this evening,
leading to increased instability over the area through early
Saturday morning as the upper low traverses the area. This increased
stability will promote more widespread shower coverage through this
period. High-res guidance showers arrive after sunset this evening,
with greatest coverage over the Sierra and Basin & Range as western
Nevada and Mono County remain largely shadowed with this first wave.
Shower intensity and areal coverage will decrease around sunrise
Friday morning, before daytime heating allows for a reinvigoration
of showers areawide in the afternoon. Storm total precipitation
has increased slightly in recent guidance, chances for 0.5" of QPF
are around 30% the Central Sierra and 15-20% for the Tahoe Basin
and Eastern Sierra. Chances for over 0.1" of QPF are around 30-40%
for far western Nevada and northeast California valleys, and
70-80% for the Basin & Range. Snow levels will be around 6500-7000
feet for a majority of this event, so some light, slushy snow may
accumulate along Sierra passes, especially at night.

The upper-low moves eastward out of our area on Saturday, with
dry conditions and lighter winds prevailing through the weekend. A
transient upper-level ridge moves in behind the exiting system
and introduces more zonal flow across the region by Sunday and
into early next week. This pattern will allow for continued dry
conditions, with typical afternoon breezes and a gradual warming
trend through at least mid-week. About 60% of ensemble clusters
show another trough moving into the region by Thursday, indicative
of the potential for a return to cooler and more unsettled
weather into the first weekend of May. Whitlam

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions prevail for all regional terminals. Fl100 winds
  increase ahead of an incoming system this afternoon, resulting in
  enhanced surface breezes this afternoon and evening. Surface wind
  gusts around 20-25 kts are likely for most terminals.

* Widespread rain and high elevation (abv 7000 ft) snow showers are
  expected to arrive around 03z for Sierra terminals and 06z for
  western Nevada terminals. Thunderstorm potential will be less than
  15%.

* Areal shower coverage decreases around 12z Friday. Reinvigoration
  in shower activity is expected again by 18z.

Whitlam

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$