489
FXUS61 KRLX 040718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
318 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through
much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week,
with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will
continue to traverse the area early this morning, then activity
is expected to continue throughout the day as a shortwave
passes over the area. Coverage of showers and storms should peak
during the afternoon and evening hours when instability will be
the greatest. While storm activity may lessen again overnight,
chances for showers are expected to linger through the end of
the near term period.

Precipitation amounts for today and tonight should be under an
inch for much of the area, though pockets of higher amounts
will be possible due to locally heavy rain in showers and storms
today. Widespread flooding is not expected; however, some
localized issues aren`t out of the question in poor drainage
areas or if higher amounts fall over locations that experienced
heavy rain yesterday.

Between cloud cover and precipitation, daytime temperatures are
expected to max out in the 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to
low 70s along the mountains. Lows for tonight should then be in
the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1128 AM Friday...

More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled
front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow
aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of
severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in
areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few
days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands
and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid
across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1129 AM Friday...

The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with
chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and
Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather
Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be
something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be
positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and
PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a
concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for
the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure
strengthening over the Great Lakes.

Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still
looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a
warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler
weather returning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Isolated to scattered showers continue to move across the area,
bringing periodic restrictions to visibility early this
morning. Additional CIG/VIS restrictions will be possible in
low stratus and some areas of fog developing this morning.

MVFR ceilings are expected to spread to most locations during
the day as a passing disturbance brings more showers and storms
across the area. A temporary improvement could occur this
afternoon, then ceilings should lower again beyond 00Z.
Visibilities will also continue to be impaired today into
tonight during any heavier showers or storms.

Calm to light and variable flow will persist through the early
morning. Flow becomes southerly to southeasterly during the
day, with light sustained winds and 15-20kt gusts possible along
the mountains this afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of restrictions due
to fog or low stratus may vary from the forecast this morning.
Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may also
vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 05/04/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB