Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
696 FXUS61 KRNK 291818 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 218 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures today, then a low pressure system will push a cold front through the region on Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of the week. Some shower and thunderstorm potential continues for parts of the area Wednesday, and again Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Unseasonably warm today - Rain entering from the west tomorrow afternoon Bright blue clear skies are the order of the day in our region. A ridge and surface high pressure are cooperating to suppress cloud formation. Deep southerly flow is advecting warm air directly into the Mid-Atlantic from the Gulf. Full sun is heating the surface as well, leading to an anomalously warm late April day. Temperatures will approach record highs. See climate section below for info on record highs at our climate sites. Tomorrow morning will begin much the same, as we are positioned in the warm sector of an approaching front. Clouds will begin filling in from the west, and as fropa begin in WV in the early afternoon, showers will spread across the area through the afternoon and into the evening. There will be some thunderstorms contained within tomorrow`s system, but they will be on the weaker end for the most part. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Above normal temperatures continue through midweek. 2. Lingering isolated showers Wednesday, dry weather Thursday. Following the passage of a cold front Tuesday night, some isolated showers may linger overnight into Wednesday. The upper shortwave associated with the surface front will be to the east of the area by Wednesday afternoon, so could see some scattered showers again later in the day. A 500mb ridge builds back over the area briefly by Thursday, as a surface high expands into the region, thus expecting dry weather for Thursday. As the high slides eastward through Thursday, winds will transition from northeasterly to southeasterly, helping to increase temperatures a few degrees. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Dry for most on Friday, showers and storms return Saturday, continue on Sunday. 2. Warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend, though cooler on Sunday. By the second half of the work week, a 500mb low develops over the north central US, and moves generally eastward, working to flatten the ridging pattern over the eastern US. A surface low deepens and tracks northeastward across the Great Lakes into southern Canada. The associated cold front will reach the area by Saturday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. With ample moisture being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico, expecting greater coverage of showers and storms than the previous system earlier in the work week for much of the day Saturday and overnight into Sunday. Another front approaches from the west by Sunday, and surface high pressure pushes southward into the area from the northeastern US. Plentiful cloud cover and a wedging pattern with the surface high will likely keep Sunday on the cooler side for temperatures, especially compared to the previous workweek. Although there are differences among the deterministic long range models on exact timing and placement of the heaviest precipitation, chances for showers and some storms are present through the weekend and into the next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions for the next 24 hours at all sites. High clouds will begin to fill in for LWB/BLF by early tomorrow morning, but won`t be low enough to reduce conditions to MVFR. Winds will consistently be out of the south/southwest at 5-8 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook... NW winds arrive behind a cold front crossing the area Tuesday with TSRA and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible again on Wednesday as the front exits the area. Thursday is forecast to be VFR and dry. The next cold front and probability of precipitation arrive in the area on Friday. This brings the potential for showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities. && .CLIMATE... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Record highs for April 29 Bluefield, WV....86 in 2017 Danville, VA.....91 in 1981 Lynchburg, VA....88 in 1974 Roanoke, VA......89 in 1944 Blacksburg, VA...86 in 2017 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...VFJ SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...AMS/VFJ CLIMATE...AMS