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000
FXUS61 KRNK 200143
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
943 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will head southward but stall across the southern
Appalachian Mountains on Saturday. Low pressure should develop
along the frontal boundary and buckle it northward by Sunday to
bring the next chance of rain towards the North Carolina and
Virginia border. Drier weather should return by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 943 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Confidence is high for a downward trend in shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours.

2. Cooler and drier conditions are expected for Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances from earlier today have just about ended.
Radar currently shows a few showers crossing the Mountain
Empire of Virginia and into the southern Blue Ridge of North
Carolina. Meanwhile, a northwest flow across southeast West
Virginia is promoting upslope showers as a cold front crosses
the Appalachian Mountains during the next few hours. Minor
tweaks to temperatures were made, but everything in the forecast
appears to be on track at this time.

Some low clouds will be possible for the favored upslope regions
from Boone to Lewisburg overnight. Eventually, skies should
clear during Saturday as cooler and drier air arrives from high
pressure nosing eastward from the northern Plains. The cold
front will become parallel with the zonal upper level flow
across the Southeast and stall somewhere across the southern
Appalachian Mountains of northeast Georgia and southwest North
Carolina. High temperatures on Saturday should only reach the
60s in the mountains as northwest winds gust up to 25 mph.
Meanwhile, the downslope flow should boost high temperatures
into the lower 70s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Cooler on Sunday.

2. Precipitation chances increase Sunday south of VA border.

3. Patchy frost possible in the mountain valleys Sunday night.

After a nice day Saturday, clouds will increase again for
Sunday. The front which passed through the area Friday night is
expected to stall over the southern Appalachians with low
pressure developing along the front and moving northeast to
along the mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in widespread
isentropic lift across the Carolinas with the potential for rain
across the southeast states...and potentially as far north as
the VA/NC border. Attm will maintain a chance for measurable
rainfall for Sunday, but mainly across our southern CWA. Clouds
for Sunday also suggests cooler temperatures. Without any sun,
the temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs only in
the 50s to lower 60s. Sunday night will also be quite cool, and
if we clear out, temperatures in the mountains may dip into the
30s with the potential of some patchy frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Light rain chances Wednesday.

2. Warmest day of the period will be Tuesday.

An upper level trough will move over cool dry high pressure
Monday. No rain is expected, but should see cirrus in the
morning and cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Clouds and cool air
will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal with
highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Dry high pressure will stay in the area through Tuesday, but
with more sun than Monday. Tuesday`s high temperatures will be
close to normal with mid to upper 60s west of the Blue Ridge to
lower 70s east.

A cold front approaches the area Tuesday night with light rain
entering the mountains early Wednesday morning. The cold front
and rain showers will move over the foothills and piedmont
early in the afternoon, exiting the area by the evening commute.
Rainfall amounts may only be a couple hundredths of an inch.
The combination of rain in the morning and cold air entering in
the afternoon will keep temperatures cooler than normal across
the mountains Wednesday. Highs will range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Areas east of the Blue Ridge will see rain later in
the day which should allow temperatures to warm to normal levels
in the afternoon.

Following the frontal passage Wednesday, cool high pressure will
settle over the region to end the workweek. Temperatures will
be cooler than normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 753 PM EDT Friday...

Flight conditions will deteriorate over the next several hours
for most terminals due to the wet ground and clouds lowering
overnight. Confidence is highest for LIFR ceilings at BLF and
LYH. MVFR ceilings are more likely for the other locations,
while ROA may be the only site with ceilings barely staying in
the VFR threshold. Isolated showers may be in the vicinity of
BLF and LWB through midnight due to the upslope flow.

Winds will turn to the northwest by Saturday morning and
increase as a cold front exits southward but stalls across the
southern Appalachian Mountains in Georgia and North Carolina.
Gusts up to 25 knots may be possible at BLF and ROA with gusts
of 15 to 20 knots more likely elsewhere. Clouds will diminish
to allow all terminals to reach VFR conditions by midday. No
restrictions to aviation are anticipated for Saturday evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

An area of low pressure will buckle the aforementioned stalled
frontal boundary northward on Sunday to bring increasing cloud
cover and a chance of light rain towards the North Carolina and
Virginia border. Drier air should return by Monday as high
pressure builds eastward across the Mid Atlantic to provide good
flying weather through Tuesday. Another cold front will arrive
during Tuesday night into Wednesday to bring the next potential
for MVFR ceilings and rain showers in the mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PW