568
FXUS61 KRNK 081025
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
625 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with
a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through
Thursday. Some storms could be severe. Drier and slightly
cooler weather arrives for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
tonight.

2) Heavy rainfall from storms could result in localized
flooding.

Upstream convection over the Ohio Valley this morning formed
along a warm front and is now primarily outflow driven as it
advances southward. Will continue to see this line of storms
move south into southeast West Virginia by daybreak, but in a
much more weakened state than what is occuring now. Still may
have some rumbles of thunder associated with it, along with a
few gusts as it moves through. Not likely that it makes it past
the southeast West Virginia mountains.

There is some uncertainty among CAMs with the progression of
the upstream convection and where it lays down a residual
outflow boundary. Wherever this boundary ends up, it will likely
be the focus for renewed convection this afternoon/evening. At
the moment, looks to get to around the VA/NC border by early
afternoon. The other caveat in the forecast today will be
residual cloud cover from the decaying storms to the northwest.
Depending on how long cloud cover remains in place will
determine the degree of destabilization that occurs. If skies
are mostly sunny through most of the day, can definitely
increase confidence on severe storm potential this
afternoon/evening.

A potentially second round of storms may impact the area late
evening/overnight from convection that develops over Kentucky
late this evening, which will be more associated with a surface
low moving through the Ohio Valley tonight. Any storms that
develop today/tonight will especially have the potential for
damaging winds, large hail, and a low risk potential for
tornadoes as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1. Showers and storms in the afternoons.

2. Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday.

A surface wave and low pressure system will move through the OH
Valley on Thursday, draping a front through the Mid-Atlantic.
Breaks in cloud cover will assist in destabilization of the
atmosphere towards Thursday afternoon. There is potential for
severe thunderstorms to create damaging winds and large hail
Thursday, especially in the NC Piedmont where the higher
instability is expected.

An upper level shortwave on Friday will have its potential
limited by reduced moisture availability in the wake of
Thursday`s frontal passage. There will still be scattered
showers and storms, though the severe risk is much lower.

Temperatures will be a in the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday,
cooling to the 60s and low 70s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

  - Daily chances for showers
  - Cooler at the end of the week

At upper levels flow becomes more west to northwest as a long
wave through develops over the northeast United States on
Saturday. A short wave coming through the northwest flow will
bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and Sunday.
This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the mountains.

Maximum temperatures through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The
coldest overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the
typically favored locations may cool into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 625 AM EDT Wednesday...

A line of storms over West Virginia this morning will continue
to progress south. Will see some increased cloud cover from
these, along with the potential for an isolated thunderstorm and
some gusty winds from through perhaps 13z for LWB/BLF.

Gradually clearing through the day and thunderstorms may
redevelop again late this evening and overnight. Periods of
IFR/LIFR. Winds generally SSW today.

Some fog development is possible again across the region tonight.

Forecast confidence is average.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected through Saturday. Daily threat of
SHRA/TSRA through at least Friday. This will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through
Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
Some improvement over the weekend especially Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...BMG