Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 252046
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Spot Forecast for Lake Sherwood Dam and Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
446 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

...Enhanced Fire Danger for southeast West Virginia through early
evening...

High pressure will keep the weather dry into tomorrow morning.
Clouds continue to be on the increase. Southeast winds between 5
to 10 mph will gust to 15 mph this afternoon before turning more
easterly and decreasing. Moderately good RH recovery is expected
overnight into Tuesday morning, reaching close to 75 percent
around 8 AM. Wetting rain chances increase tomorrow, especially by
early afternoon, and continue into the night. An associated cold
front will cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday, only to stall
across eastern areas on Thursday.



.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 5 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 8.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........26     9      43     62     73
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0
Temp............47     42     40     38     35
RH..............35     49     59     69     74
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 7   E 7    E 7    E 6
20 ft wind gust.13     13     13     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....200    200    200    200    200
Mixing wind......SE 12  SE 9   E 8    E 7    E 5
LVORI...........2      2      3      3      3
ADI.............8      6      7      6      5
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.8      7      5      4      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    south around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 5 to 14 mph shifting to the south 9
                    to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (30000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 31.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........73     86     81     89     69     85
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      10     20     20     50
Temp............34     34     39     46     50     50
RH..............76     72     59     48     47     53
20 ft wind......E 6    E 6    SE 6   SE 7   SE 8   S 7
20 ft wind gust.8      8      10     12     14     12
Mix hgt (ft)....200    300    1100   1700   2200   1600
Mixing wind......E 5    E 6    SE 9   SE 14  S 15   S 12
LVORI...........4      3      2      1      1      2
ADI.............3      4      16     31     31     23
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.2      2      12     25     35     24

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain likely in
                    the evening, then chance of rain overnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......50 percent increasing to 60 percent late in the
                    evening, then decreasing to 50 percent late in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 3 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............7.
ADI.................2 to 12.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........85     93     80     76     84     85
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50     50     60     50     50     50
Temp............48     45     44     43     43     43
RH..............65     78     85     88     90     94
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 6   SE 5   SE 5   SE 4   SE 3
20 ft wind gust.10     10     8      8      7      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   500    400    400    400    400
Mixing wind......SE 8   SE 6   SE 6   SE 6   SE 5   SE 3
LVORI...........3      4      5      6      6      7
ADI.............12     4      4      4      3      2
Haines index....3      2      2      2      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.10     5      4      4      4      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain.
CWR (0.01 in).......50 percent decreasing to 30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon, then becoming light late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 2 to 3 mph shifting to the east
                    around 2 mph early in the morning, then
                    shifting to the south around 1 mph early in the
                    afternoon shifting to the southwest late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............7.
ADI.................1 to 4.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........86        92        81        62
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RAIN      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50        40        40        30
Temp............42        44        50        56
RH..............97        94        83        67
20 FT wind......SE 2G4    S 3G5     S 3G6     SW 5G7
Mix hgt (ft)....400       500       1500      2500
Mixing wind......SE 3      E 2       SE 2      S 1
LVORI...........8         7         5         3
ADI.............1         2         4         2
Haines index....3         3         3         4
VRate mph-ft/1K.2         2         3         3

$$

Forecaster...Hanes
Requested by...Colleen Urffer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2408384.1/RNK
.DELDT 03/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL colleen.urffer@usda.gov


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