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000
FNUS71 KRNK 170847
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Blue Panther...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
447 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...


Showers possible this morning resulting in RH values remaining elevated
and mixing heights under 2kft with poor ventilation. Possible sunshine in
the afternoon could allow for better mixing, but potential exists for
clouds to linger and keep ventilation lower. A few storms
tomorrow could bring strong wind gusts.

Thursday is expected to be drier and sunnier. Better mixing and
ventilation with northwest winds gusting into the 20 mph range.
Min RH around 30 percent.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 20 percent early in
                    the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 11 mph with
                    gusts to around 18 mph early in the morning.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 3 to 7 mph increasing to 6 to 13 mph late
                    in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (51500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 47 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  89  90  93  95  95  77  61  74  77  88  84
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............57  57  59  61  63  65  67  69  71  72  71  70
RH..............83  81  79  74  69  64  59  54  50  48  48  49
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   6   6   7   7   8   10  10  10  11
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   10  11  12  12  14  17  17  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.3 2.0 3.0 3.5 4.3 5.1 5.4 3.8
Mixng wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   SE  S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..3   5   6   7   7   7   7   6   6   8   10  13
LVORI...........5   5   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   1   1
ADI.............2   4   4   8   12  18  21  20  22  34  47  46
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1K.1   2   2   6   9   15  20  20  25  41  59  48

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent decreasing to 10 percent in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    west overnight. Gusts up to 24 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 5 to 12 mph shifting to the west 7 to 14
                    mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 33.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........81     49     46     45     37     36
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............20     20     10     10     10     0
Temp............68     66     63     61     60     59
RH..............51     57     61     65     68     75
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 10  SW 11  W 12   W 12   W 11
20 ft wind gust.18     18     18     19     19     18
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   800    800    800    900    900
Mixing wind......S 12   S 7    SW 5   SW 8   W 14   W 9
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      3      4
ADI.............33     6      4      7      12     8
Haines index....5      4      4      4      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.28     6      4      6      12     9

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 11 mph with gusts to around 18
                    mph.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 7 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 18
                    to 23 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (103500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 early in the morning increasing to 126 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........28     36     15     12     3      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............59     60     66     70     73     75
RH..............77     71     56     41     32     30
20 ft wind......W 11   W 11   W 11   W 11   NW 11  NW 11
20 ft wind gust.18     18     18     18     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1800   3200   4000   5100   5000
Mixing wind......W 7    W 12   W 18   NW 23  NW 23  NW 23
LVORI...........4      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.............6      26     73     87     96     97
Haines index....3      4      4      4      5      5
VRate mph-ft/1K.7      20     61     93     117    118

$$
Forecaster...Gruver
Requested by...Adam Christie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410688.9/RNK
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Adam.christie@usda.gov