487
FXUS63 KSGF 021720
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain is expected to begin around 6-10 AM for areas west of
  Hwy 65 and spread east through the day. Rain will diminish
  west to east after 7 PM tonight.

- The best chance for strong to marginally severe storms will
  be in the late morning to early afternoon hours.

- The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend
  and early next week with highest rain chances on Saturday.

- Temperatures will remain above average through at least the
  next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

There are currently two MCS features happening over the Central
Plains region, and neither of them are currently impacting the
SGF CWA. One MCS is moving through southeastern NE and
northeastern KS. The other is making its way through central OK.
However, both MCS features are expected to impact us within the
next few hours. A shortwave sneaks underneath a weak 500mb
ridge over MO late this morning as well. The MCS`s and the
shortwave will allow instability to develop ahead of an incoming
weak surface cold front. Initial convection will be produced by
the southern MCS that will be moving into our area. Once
convection is initiated, models have a line of thunderstorms
filling in feeding off of the northern MCS moving through
north-central MO. Right now, have POPs starting to trend upward
after 7 AM and trend downward after 7 PM this evening. Though,
rain could end early if the front moves through quicker than
anticipated.

As far as thunderstorm potential, there are still model
discrepancies for today on how widespread the thunderstorms
will be. SPC has our entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe
weather today. Only a couple of the CAMs this morning have a
decent handle on MCS activity. The greatest chance for strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms will occur late this morning
into the early afternoon hours. MUCAPE values are around
700-1500 J/kg for this time period with the highest values
occurring over central MO. As soon as the shortwave moves out of
the area, convection begins to die down. The incoming weak cold
front won`t provide enough forcing to sustain severe-level convection
through the rest of the day. Though, showers still may occur
with a few rumbles of thunder until the cold front completely
passes through our area.

As for QPF, rainfall totals will be around 0.5 to 1 inch with
localized higher amounts up to 2 inches over central MO. With
the over-saturated soils, remember that flash flooding may
still occur in low-lying areas even with this amount of
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are
chances for rain everyday through Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Friday through Wednesday. The entire
area is in a general risk for severe weather both on Friday and
Saturday. So far, no outlook has been posted by SPC for Sunday.

However, by Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough
begins to move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another
round of severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and
timing, but SPC does have our western counties in KS in a Day 5
outlook for a 15% chance for severe weather. CIPS and CSU
guidance also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another
day to keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing
signs of possible severe weather occuring over southern MO. May
has started...severe weather season is here. Make sure to stay
up to date with the forecast especially as the start of the next
work week creeps closer.

As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels
could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to
monitor for additional flooding in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For the 18z TAFS, scattered light showers were expanding over
the southwest quadrant of MO in advance of a remnant MCV. Some
stronger convection was beginning to develop along the frontal
boundary over southeast Kansas. Convection should continue to
increase over western MO and southeast Kansas early this
afternoon with the slow approach of the cold front to the east
and the MCV to the northeast. Most of the convection will occur
from the onset of the 18z TAFS through around 03-04z. Expect to
see some MVFR within the areas of convection and some IFR with
the stronger storms. Behind the front, some scattered showers
will remain possible, but we should become predominantly IFR
through the remainder of the night, with improving conditions on
Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Lindenberg