National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSJT 170746
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
246 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Low level moisture making a return to West Central Texas early
this morning with dewpoints surging back into the 60s to near 70.
This moisture will continue northwest into the Big Country and
Concho Valley this morning before starting to mix out some as a
dryline develops for the afternoon. Lots of high clouds overhead
that may end up inhibiting mixing and sharpness of the convergence
along the dryline this afternoon. Latest HRRR does how a few
isolated storms late this afternoon and into the evening, while
other CAMs are not quite so generous. Will go ahead and mention
some isolated POPs possible, especially since CAPE values may
reach3000 j/kg across portions of the Heartland and Hill Country
ahead of the dryline.

Otherwise, another warm to hot day with temperatures climbing into
the lower 90s across the area. Moisture surges back northwest
this evening and dewpoints will climb back into the 60s tonight,
helping keep overnight lows mild.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Ahead of a dryline Wednesday evening, the area east of a Cross
Plains to Menard to Roosevelt line will have a slight chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday evening. On Thursday, a strong cold front
will move south across the Big Country in the mid-to-late afternoon.
Timing of the frontal passage will affect highs north of I-20, but
generally expecting upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big Country.
South of the front, with compressional warming effects, south-
southwest winds and considerable sunshine, temperatures will soar
into the mid 90s for much of the area, with a few upper 90s
anticipated in the Concho Valley.

The cold front will push south across the rest of our area Thursday
evening and early Thursday night. With this front, our eastern and
southeastern counties have a low to medium chance (20-40 percent) of
showers and thunderstorms. In an environment with strong instability
but weak effective bulk shear, a few strong to severe storms will be
possible generally southeast of a line from Cross Plains to Eldorado
to southeastern Crockett County.

In the wake of this frontal passage, temperatures will be much
cooler across the northern half of our area Friday, and to a lesser
extent in our southern counties. Cloud cover will increase by Friday.

Temperatures will be much cooler over the weekend as the cooler air
gets reinforced with a fairly strong (for this time of year) surface
high building south across the Plains. Skies will be mostly cloudy
to cloudy with somewhat breezy north to northeast winds. An
overrunning setup will develop with upper level disturbances
tracking east across the area. After a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday night, our area will have likely showers and a
few elevated thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Heavier
rainfall will be possible during this time. Rainfall amounts of 0.50
to 1.5 inches will be possible, although this is a preliminary look.
A lingering chance for mainly showers will continue into the day
Sunday. Sunday looks to be the coolest day with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Weak northwest flow aloft over our area Monday is progged to become
Quasi-zonal Tuesday. Cloud cover could linger into Monday morning,
but should decrease in the afternoon as a little drier air filters
into the area. Temperatures will be warmer Monday, with a return to
southeast and south winds, and highs getting back into the 70s.
Warmer for Tuesday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and
increasing south winds. Highs Tuesday look to be close to normal and
mostly in the 80-85 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Veil of high clouds continues to stream across West Central Texas
early this morning. Low level moisture is making a comeback and
expect MVFr and perhaps IFR cigs to redevelop and move back across
the southern terminals before sunrise and persist into the morning
hours. Otherwise, light winds will swing back around to the south
later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     92  67  94  55 /  10  10  20  10
San Angelo  93  66  98  60 /  10  10  10  10
Junction    95  68  97  63 /  20  20  20  20
Brownwood   88  65  92  58 /  20  20  40  30
Sweetwater  91  66  94  54 /   0   0  10  10
Ozona       90  67  94  63 /  10  10  10  10
Brady       89  67  94  61 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...07