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000
FXUS62 KTBW 101142
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
742 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds around 12-17 knots with
gusts to around 27 knots expected through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The ridge that has dominated our weather pattern the past several
days continues to shift off to the east and the approaching trough
is constricting the pressure gradient over the region. Today that
means strong southerly flow with gusty winds and warm temperatures
topping out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Moisture won`t
increase across the area until Thursday, so heat index values will
remain near the actual highs as humidity values remain very low.

The low pressure will strengthen as it lifts across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes Region tonight and into
Thursday. As it does so, moisture will begin to surge across the
Florida Peninsula leading to PWATs between 1.5 to 2 inches by
Thursday morning ahead of the line of storms. This looks to be a low
CAPE, high shear environment with decent helicity values expected
with this setup. The SPC has extended the Slight risk for severe
weather south to include the Tampa Bay region with nearly all of the
CWA falling under at least a Marginal Risk on Thursday. Damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats with
Thursday`s severe weather. Current timing brings storms into the
Nature Coast on Thursday morning, the Tampa Bay region and Central
Florida during the afternoon hours, and finally impacting SWFL on
Thursday evening.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the strong winds with the
boundary over the Gulf waters will lead to a coastal flooding threat
for the west coast of Florida. This wind will also create large
choppy breaking waves and rip currents along areas beaches through
Friday.

Behind the front, slightly cooler temperatures and much drier air
will filter into the region for the end of the week and beginning of
the weekend. By Sunday, the high pressure will shift to the east
shifting our flow from northerly to easterly. Temperatures will
begin to rebound over the weekend, with high temperatures becoming
quite toasty to start next week. Moisture will be slower to increase
with dewpoints remaining into the 50s into the middle part of next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

The pressure gradient will continue to tighten today leading to
elevated winds and seas. These hazardous marine conditions will lead
to SCEC today and SCA on Thursday. Rain and thunderstorms will move
across the waters on Thursday ahead of the frontal boundary with
erratic winds and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Strong high
pressure will build into the region on Friday with breezy
northwesterly winds and continued elevated seas. Winds and seas will
finally decrease over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  72  82  66 /   0   0  70  20
FMY  87  71  86  68 /   0   0  30  30
GIF  88  70  88  63 /   0   0  60  30
SRQ  87  72  85  65 /   0   0  60  20
BKV  88  66  84  57 /   0  10  70  10
SPG  84  73  80  67 /   0   0  70  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...RDavis