509
FXXX10 KWNP 300031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2024

             Apr 30       May 01       May 02
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         3.67
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         4.00
06-09UT       2.00         3.67         3.67
09-12UT       2.00         3.33         3.33
12-15UT       1.67         3.00         3.00
15-18UT       1.67         3.33         2.67
18-21UT       2.67         3.67         3.67
21-00UT       1.67         4.00         3.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2024

              Apr 30  May 01  May 02
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 29 2024 0111 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2024

              Apr 30        May 01        May 02
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
M-class flare activity will persist through 02 May mainly due to the
evolution and recent flare activity exhibited by AR 3654.