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000
FXXX10 KWNP 120031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 12-Apr 14 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 12-Apr 14 2024

             Apr 12       Apr 13       Apr 14
00-03UT       1.67         2.33         1.67
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         1.67
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         4.00
09-12UT       1.33         1.67         3.67
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         3.33
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         3.00
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         2.33
21-00UT       1.67         2.67         3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 12-Apr 14 2024

              Apr 12  Apr 13  Apr 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 11 2024 1706 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 12-Apr 14 2024

              Apr 12        Apr 13        Apr 14
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 12-14 Apr.