457
FXUS63 KTOP 092200
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
500 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week, with seasonable
  temperatures in the 70s.

- Precipitation chances (30-60%) return Sunday and persist
  through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A very nice afternoon is underway across northeastern Kansas as
temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s area-wide. Zooming
out a bit, a retrograding mid-level low is beginning to separate
from the positively-tilted wave entering the northeastern US, taking
on a Rex blocking pattern over the western US. This should help to
mitigate moisture advection into the area over the next few days and
keep the area dry. By Friday, expect similar conditions to this
afternoon with temperatures topping out around the mid 70s.

By Saturday night, the blocking pattern will begin to break down and
push the upper low into the central Plains, increasing rain chances
Sunday and into early next week. Instability and shear needed for
strong to severe weather will stay south of the area, so mainly
expecting widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder through
Monday evening. Long range ensemble guidance depicts a wide area of
0.5-1 inch precipitation totals through Tuesday morning with the
highest totals in southern and central Kansas and lesser totals
further north. Precipitation moves out Tuesday with moisture and
shear increasing through the remainder of the week. With some waves
passing over the central Plains Wednesday through the end of the
week, chances for rain and storms will return to the area once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected. Minor gusts and a few cumulus
around FL050 should diminish very early with sunset. Despite
light winds and little cloud cover, crossover temperatures are a
few degrees below even the coldest low temperature guidance so
no diurnal BR/FG is anticipated.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Poage