National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KTSA 120529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Latest surface analysis across the region indicates surface high
pressure situated across western-north TX. Its ridge axis will
shift eastward over the CWA overnight tonight and will help keep
winds light & variable through the early morning hours Friday.
Overall, the current forecast remains on track through remainder
of the night. The light winds and clear skies will cause modest
radiational cooling to occur. Temperatures in most locations will
gradually drop into the lower 40s, though portions of far
northeast OK and far northwest AR may drop into the mid-upper 30s
just before sunrise. Only minor adjustments to the current
forecast have been made.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Warm up will commence tomorrow and continue over the next several days.
Sunday appears to be the warmest day of this forecast cycle, especially
across parts of northeast Oklahoma as upper level ridging will be
aided by a downslope wind component. Surface winds will back to a
more southerly direction Monday ahead of the next system that
will move out of the rocky mountain region and into the plains
late Monday. Isolated warm advection showers and storms may occur
Monday morning, however will not include PoPs at this time given
uncertainty in coverage. A potent, negatively tiled upper trough
will eject into the plains Monday evening, with storms expected to
develop to the west along the attendant dryline by late afternoon
or early evening. This activity will push east and enter
northeast Oklahoma by mid to late evening. At this time, forecast
instability and shear profiles are supportive of all severe
weather modes. Uncertainty remains concerning overall timing and
just how far east the risk for severe weather will extend across
the area. These details will be refined with later forecasts and
outlooks. The area looks to be in between systems Wednesday, with
rain and thunder chances returning Thursday as another surface
boundary approaches from the north. Stayed fairly close to the NBM
for temperatures, and used a blend of guidance for winds/wind
gusts for select early periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  57  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  51  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  57  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   75  51  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  52  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  52  80  61 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   74  54  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  53  80  62 /   0   0   0  10
F10   77  57  81  62 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   74  53  78  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...05