Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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713 FXUS64 KTSA 020210 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 910 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms remain well west of the area this evening, currently moving into far southwest Oklahoma. Remnants of decaying MCS will likely move into portions of eastern Oklahoma late tonight. A few storms could maintain strength, but more likely will likely weaken by the time activity moves into eastern Oklahoma. Still a low chance for a few isolated pockets of higher winds with inverted v soundings depicted in some of the CAM solutions, but again overall severe threat likely to remain low. Forecast remains on track this evening, with no major changes anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Ongoing MCS across the area Thursday morning will shift eastward and weaken with time through the morning as it moves into northwest Arkansas. What happens Wednesday night/Thursday morning will play a role in the evolution of rain chances later in the day Thursday and overnight. A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area during the day Thursday. If the atmosphere can recover in time in the wake of previous convection, a renewed round of showers and storms will be likely along the frontal boundary Thursday evening, with some severe potential depending on the airmass in place by that time. A relative lull in the action is expected on Friday, with some lingering showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma as the frontal boundary becomes stalled and washes out during the day Friday. Broad western CONUS troughing will continue into the weekend however, allowing for the active pattern to continue through the weekend. Shower and storm chances increase again on Saturday and Sunday as several shortwave speed maxes rotate through the larger scale trough and move out over the Plains. Uncertainty remains in the severe threat after several days of convection across the Plains modifying the airmass. But, with it being May, can`t rule out severe potential any day with storms around the area. The main upper trough is progged to become negatively tilted and eject out into the Central Plains on Monday which could bring the next chance for more widespread severe potential to the region, but will continue to be dependent on how much the atmosphere has been worked over by previous convection at that point. This trough should finally push a frontal boundary through the region and potentially allow for a brief quieter period for the middle part of next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions prevail this evening across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas and are expected to continue through much of the valid period. There could be some period of MVFR conditions later tonight into Thursday as showers and storms potentially impact area sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 78 60 80 / 40 70 60 20 FSM 66 77 64 82 / 20 80 60 40 MLC 66 78 62 82 / 60 80 60 30 BVO 63 77 56 79 / 40 70 50 10 FYV 64 77 59 81 / 10 70 60 30 BYV 65 78 61 79 / 0 60 60 20 MKO 66 76 61 80 / 40 70 60 20 MIO 66 76 59 79 / 20 70 70 10 F10 65 78 61 79 / 60 80 60 20 HHW 65 76 64 79 / 60 90 60 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...10