737
FXUS65 KTWC 040857
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 AM MST Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Sunny, warm, and dry to start the weekend. A dry
weather system will bring stronger breezes to windy conditions
with possible blowing dust on Sunday. Cooler Monday than
temperatures warm up the remainder of next week with continued
afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A Pacific weather system has started to move into
the western coast states based on the latest satellite imagery.
Southeast Arizona will start to feel the impacts today with a
little more breezier day compared to yesterday. Another ground
hog`s day of high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

By Sunday, the weather system will pass to the north and creating
a tighter pressure gradient to bring strong gusty southwesterly
winds. The latest guidance on speeds have come down slightly, but
the probability of exceeding a gust greater than 45 mph is at
least: 5% in Tucson; 22% Douglas; 46% Willcox; 59% Safford; and
higher values along ridge tops and in valleys with southwest
orientations. Overall, Southeast Arizona could experience
sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Can`t rule
out blowing dust impacts in the afternoon due to fine dry soils
around the region. This also leads to fire weather concerns
because of the combinations of strong gusty winds, low relative
humidities, and a high fire danger. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch is
still in effect for Sunday morning to the evening.

Monday, the weather system will move out east and resulting in
cooler daytime temperatures and stronger breezes, especially out
east in Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties.

For the rest of the week, temperatures will warm up back up to
above seasonal normal with the continuation of afternoon breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL and then clearing west to east
after 04/20Z. SFC wind generally light and variable this morning.
After 04/19Z, SFC winds favoring SWLY/WLY at 10-16 kts and gusts
up to 24 kts, with the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the
vicinity of KDUG and KALK. After 05/03Z, winds generally favoring
SLY at less than 12 knots till the end of the forecast period.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal
through Sunday and then within a couple of degrees of normal next
week. Today, 20-ft winds will generally be 15-20 mph with min RHs
values of single digits to teens in the valleys and in the teens
for the mountains. By Sunday, dry weather system will move to our
north, resulting in windy southwest winds of 20-30 mph and gusts
to 40-45 mph across most of southeast Arizona. Breezy afternoon
and early evening conditions then persist much of next week,
especially to the east of Tucson. Min RHs values in the valleys
will be in the single digits to lower teens, with values generally
in the teens for the mountains.

On Sunday, the combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low
relative humidity levels, and a high fire danger rating will
result in near critical to critical fire weather conditions from
the late morning through early evening hours. A Fire Weather Watch
has been issued for all of southeast Arizona from 11 am to 7 pm
MST Sunday.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ150>154.

&&

$$

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