000
FXUS63 KUNR 150428
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1028 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
TROFFING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING TONGUE OF VERY DRY AIR EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CU...AND SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE AND
COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...THROUGH THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TOUCH OFF A
RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL FLATTEN
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FURTHER...AND PRODUCE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ENERGY IN THIS FLOW...ALONG WITH SOME
COOLER AIR ALOFT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAINLY IN THE 70S. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

UPPER TROF TRACKS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY...BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR TSTMS TO THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. SOME
TSTMS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CAP AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL
BE LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS TO THE REGION. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

ISOLD-SCT TSRA EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH LCL MVFR VSBY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10